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Posted: #26
Capper Nice calls last week

Early in the week but wanted to take a look at the thurs game b/c well, its first. After watching both Pats and Jets games this week I believe a strong play is Jets+ 13  and Under 43 or as high as you can get them..... 


Brady looked like the same old Tom... Sharp, methodical, and moving well for a man closing in on his fourth decade of life... His weapons however did not... Aside from Vareen and Amendola, who played like studs, the vaunted patriots offense looked rather unimpressive. Kenbrell Tomkins and Suggfeld both looked like late draft rookies, dropping passes and being inconsistent, while Riddley fumbled his way right out of the game.... and the other guys obviously were not good enough not too play so....

But here is where it gets really bad... NO Vareen, and more than likely no Amendola. Vareen had surgery on his wrist and Amendola will be saved for the rest of the season EVEN if he could possibly go, this is not a playoff game fellas.. Also for all those who want a big gronk sandwich.... I would point your eyes towards a Mr. Griffin who looked more than a tad rusty after a whole year off.... Anyhow Bill seems to prescribe to the "...its how it looks at the end" formula and I just cant see him risking his two best weapons in what at the end will be a meaningless divisional game...

Also I saw a patriots O line that had trouble at times protecting Tom Brady.. The bills have limited talent on that side of the ball but still were able to hit brady several times especially in later parts of the game... The bills secondary however is a sham playing rather vanilla coverages poorly. 

The Patriots D looks pretty good...  they did a pretty nice job against a team that will surprise a lot of people this year.. EJ can play... Reminds me alot of McNair.... I know I know its early, just a hunch.... Plus the threat of the read option with the two headed backfield of Jackson & Spiller will give alot of teams a run for their money...

But this jets team will be alot less trouble...I think they keep the offense to around 10-13 points.. 

And now to the Jets... 

Rex really showed me something on sunday... Despite all the noise and BS flying around him, and despite not having the BEST talent... He constantly fields a high level Defense.... Their offense is a neglected piece  of dog waste but that is for another paragraph.... 

Against a physical running team in Tampa bay... Rex's D controlled the line of scrimmage all game... Doug martin didn't go off until the hook and ladder on the last play... Plus, using his scheme and pressures,Rex constantly got pressure on Josh Freeman.... I think that if the Bills gave the Patriots line some fits, Rexy should have an even better day..... 
Their ability to stuff the run combined with New England's lack of serious deep threats means that the area 10 yards past the line of scrimmage is going to be thick with 8,9,10 jets, all trying to confuse Brady and get a helmet on him... 

Now where the jets get kinda scary is that other side of the ball..... 
Geno Smith is not a pro quarterback, at least not last week and I don't see him figuring it all out in a short one...
The jets are also pretty bereft of talent on offense and prone to turnovers.... If Geno gets pressured and cant get outside the pocket, WATCH OUT.. he might just throw it up to whom ever like he did to tampa... dude is not Russell wilson.... 

But the one upside to the jets offense is their offensive line is pretty good... Now have to watch the mangold injury but he will likely play.. only missed 2 games in his whole career and this game DOES MEAN SOMETHING to the jets..... After they stay in the game for a QT or so on the back of their D.. I think Geno and his feet will make 1 or 2 plays that will put some points on the board.....

Pats win 17-9


Ive already written too much and hope for some good feedback fellas..... fire away
 
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Posted: #27
really like the fins @ home getting 3 points vs a colts that, IMO, is worse then the fish.
 
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Posted: #28
 
LC, 
I'm leaning towards KC just because Reid knows the Cowboys quite well and all the action is on the cowboys.

Also leaning towards  Atl  & Ten, just because Stl & Houston had a hell of a comeback to win last week and probably worn out.

your thoughts??


 
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Posted: #29
Teaser or ML candidates: PHI, BAL, CIN

Philadelphia I feel is the biggest lock to win this week.  SD on a short week, deflating loss, defense should be dead against an up tempo offense like the Eagles should be too much for SD to keep up with.  I still don't have much faith in Rivers or their WR meanwhile Desean/Vick/McCoy all look rejuvenated.

Baltimore should bounce back versus a Browns team that has no WR and 2 terrible guards starting.  Coaching staff wont make the same mistake of not giving the ball to Richardson, but The Ravens on a long week with extra time to prepare should be able to come away with the W - I don't see them starting 0-2 in any form or fashion.

Cincy I am not that bullish on, but this is more of the Steelers offense being complete trash.  No RB, poor OL, aging Big Ben versus a top 8ish defense in Cin should be enough for Cin to win.  The only concern is Pittsburgh defense is still quality and Tomlin is a great coach.

Current ATS lean is Mia+3 as I stated I want to fade IND as much as I can all year.  I need to dig in a bit more but this is one I like upfront.

The other thing I enjoy looking at are 'fishy' lines.  The ones that at first glance you think is an obvious lock - think TB, HOU, etc last week.

Dallas+3, Den -4.5, Sea -3.  I'm putting Seattle here because too many people are focusing on SF performance versus GB.  Boldin won't replicate what he did and my guess is Seattle was not throwing the kitchen sink at Carolina.  Their goal seemed to be to come away with the W and get ready for SF.  Everyone knows how terrible Sea is 2 timezones away from home and how amazing they are at home.  Basing it all on last weeks performance seems like a trap.  Same with Denver - huge blowout on national TV only laying 4.5 versus a team that looked pitiful on national TV.

Curious your thoughts.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by BadGnOmens:

Capper Nice calls last week

Early in the week but wanted to take a look at the thurs game b/c well, its first. After watching both Pats and Jets games this week I believe a strong play is Jets+ 13  and Under 43 or as high as you can get them..... 


Brady looked like the same old Tom... Sharp, methodical, and moving well for a man closing in on his fourth decade of life... His weapons however did not... Aside from Vareen and Amendola, who played like studs, the vaunted patriots offense looked rather unimpressive. Kenbrell Tomkins and Suggfeld both looked like late draft rookies, dropping passes and being inconsistent, while Riddley fumbled his way right out of the game.... and the other guys obviously were not good enough not too play so....

But here is where it gets really bad... NO Vareen, and more than likely no Amendola. Vareen had surgery on his wrist and Amendola will be saved for the rest of the season EVEN if he could possibly go, this is not a playoff game fellas.. Also for all those who want a big gronk sandwich.... I would point your eyes towards a Mr. Griffin who looked more than a tad rusty after a whole year off.... Anyhow Bill seems to prescribe to the "...its how it looks at the end" formula and I just cant see him risking his two best weapons in what at the end will be a meaningless divisional game...

Also I saw a patriots O line that had trouble at times protecting Tom Brady.. The bills have limited talent on that side of the ball but still were able to hit brady several times especially in later parts of the game... The bills secondary however is a sham playing rather vanilla coverages poorly. 

The Patriots D looks pretty good...  they did a pretty nice job against a team that will surprise a lot of people this year.. EJ can play... Reminds me alot of McNair.... I know I know its early, just a hunch.... Plus the threat of the read option with the two headed backfield of Jackson & Spiller will give alot of teams a run for their money...

But this jets team will be alot less trouble...I think they keep the offense to around 10-13 points.. 

And now to the Jets... 

Rex really showed me something on sunday... Despite all the noise and BS flying around him, and despite not having the BEST talent... He constantly fields a high level Defense.... Their offense is a neglected piece  of dog waste but that is for another paragraph.... 

Against a physical running team in Tampa bay... Rex's D controlled the line of scrimmage all game... Doug martin didn't go off until the hook and ladder on the last play... Plus, using his scheme and pressures,Rex constantly got pressure on Josh Freeman.... I think that if the Bills gave the Patriots line some fits, Rexy should have an even better day..... 
Their ability to stuff the run combined with New England's lack of serious deep threats means that the area 10 yards past the line of scrimmage is going to be thick with 8,9,10 jets, all trying to confuse Brady and get a helmet on him... 

Now where the jets get kinda scary is that other side of the ball..... 
Geno Smith is not a pro quarterback, at least not last week and I don't see him figuring it all out in a short one...
The jets are also pretty bereft of talent on offense and prone to turnovers.... If Geno gets pressured and cant get outside the pocket, WATCH OUT.. he might just throw it up to whom ever like he did to tampa... dude is not Russell wilson.... 

But the one upside to the jets offense is their offensive line is pretty good... Now have to watch the mangold injury but he will likely play.. only missed 2 games in his whole career and this game DOES MEAN SOMETHING to the jets..... After they stay in the game for a QT or so on the back of their D.. I think Geno and his feet will make 1 or 2 plays that will put some points on the board.....

Pats win 17-9


Ive already written too much and hope for some good feedback fellas..... fire away


Great points mate; however, everything you posted is based on the matchup and the matchup alone. Try measuring it from a situational point of view and see what you come up with. Curious to see what you'd think from that angle
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by MpJanz:

 
LC, 
I'm leaning towards KC just because Reid knows the Cowboys quite well and all the action is on the cowboys.

Also leaning towards  Atl  & Ten, just because Stl & Houston had a hell of a comeback to win last week and probably worn out.

your thoughts??




Early lean to Ten as well as that was one hell of a comeback the Texans had to muster up just to win that game. I think the Titans punch them in the mouth to start, just a lean at this point though
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Rambler882:

Teaser or ML candidates: PHI, BAL, CIN

Philadelphia I feel is the biggest lock to win this week.  SD on a short week, deflating loss, defense should be dead against an up tempo offense like the Eagles should be too much for SD to keep up with.  I still don't have much faith in Rivers or their WR meanwhile Desean/Vick/McCoy all look rejuvenated.

Baltimore should bounce back versus a Browns team that has no WR and 2 terrible guards starting.  Coaching staff wont make the same mistake of not giving the ball to Richardson, but The Ravens on a long week with extra time to prepare should be able to come away with the W - I don't see them starting 0-2 in any form or fashion.

Cincy I am not that bullish on, but this is more of the Steelers offense being complete trash.  No RB, poor OL, aging Big Ben versus a top 8ish defense in Cin should be enough for Cin to win.  The only concern is Pittsburgh defense is still quality and Tomlin is a great coach.

Current ATS lean is Mia+3 as I stated I want to fade IND as much as I can all year.  I need to dig in a bit more but this is one I like upfront.

The other thing I enjoy looking at are 'fishy' lines.  The ones that at first glance you think is an obvious lock - think TB, HOU, etc last week.

Dallas+3, Den -4.5, Sea -3.  I'm putting Seattle here because too many people are focusing on SF performance versus GB.  Boldin won't replicate what he did and my guess is Seattle was not throwing the kitchen sink at Carolina.  Their goal seemed to be to come away with the W and get ready for SF.  Everyone knows how terrible Sea is 2 timezones away from home and how amazing they are at home.  Basing it all on last weeks performance seems like a trap.  Same with Denver - huge blowout on national TV only laying 4.5 versus a team that looked pitiful on national TV.

Curious your thoughts.


Good input mate, careful with the Eagles though that spread is pretty high up there. One thing that was masked in that Eagles/Redskins game is how bad the Eagles defense still is. People who saw the game think the Eagles D played well in the 1H and just gave up points late in the game because it was already out of reach. Not true at all, the Eagles D played well in the 1H because RG3 was rusty as hell not playing a single snap in 9+ months. Eagles defense is still one of the worst in the league. One thing you do point out that I agree with though is about the Chargers deflating loss. True.
 
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Posted: #33
Jags +6. Cards even. Colts -3.
 
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Posted: #34
Thursday game with the Jets and the Patriots

Both teams are rusty, but the Pats don't have many options when it comes to scoring touchdowns because of so many injuries (amendola, dufield, and vereen).

I'm saying go under 44 or jets +13
 
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Posted: #35
09/15/13
49ers (SanFrancisco)
+2.5
20:35 ET
09/15/13
Chiefs (KansasCity)
-3
13:05 ET
(-105)
09/15/13
Lions (Detroit)
-2.5
16:10 ET
09/15/13
Packers (GreenBay)
-7.5
13:05 E
 
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Posted: #36
Regarding Den -4.5 @ NYG, that line looks fishy because NYG actually would have won that game on Sunday if they didnt' cough up those turnovers.  They played well, with solid gains in the air and on the ground.  Defense looked fairly solid.  As I said, you should expect a serious blowout with six turnovers, but they held in for most of that game.  Now at home, and with Coughlin all over them for the mistakes, I expect them to be exceptionally sharp.

I'm a Denver Broncos fan, but this will be a tough matchup.  I expect a very solid game from both Manning brothers.  Could go NYG straight up, but I'm thinking something more like Denver by 2/3 points in a close one.

Denver Broncos 23 - New York Giants 21
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Great points mate; however, everything you posted is based on the matchup and the matchup alone. Try measuring it from a situational point of view and see what you come up with. Curious to see what you'd think from that angle

Hmmm...... If anything I think the patriots will come out fired up... At home.. played poorly last week.. Playing division Biatccccchhhh Jets.......

Also Jets probably feel somewhat accomplished this week after being gifted a W instead of just a Moral Victory...

The only thing that gives me pause is that sometimes Rex can get his boys way up for Pats games and I don't believe that locker room has fallen off the cliff yet....

So maybe from this point of view best bet is the under... Pats will be held down for most of game but will do enough to win. Also without most of his weapons look for the Backs to get around 20 carries, Bill will want to escape to his mini-By week as quick as he can.... Jets offense will sputter and putter for 4 qt's...... Jets play calling made me want to puke..... 

They still use the wildcat at times even when they have a mobile QB who could run the read option..... 

 Look forward to ur imput Cap...


 
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Posted: #38
Seattle , will win
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Good input mate, careful with the Eagles though that spread is pretty high up there. One thing that was masked in that Eagles/Redskins game is how bad the Eagles defense still is. People who saw the game think the Eagles D played well in the 1H and just gave up points late in the game because it was already out of reach. Not true at all, the Eagles D played well in the 1H because RG3 was rusty as hell not playing a single snap in 9+ months. Eagles defense is still one of the worst in the league. One thing you do point out that I agree with though is about the Chargers deflating loss. True.


Agreed completely, the first 3 teams I mentioned are only for ML parlays or teasers as I think each team should win the game but not necessarily cover the spread.  I don't think PHI has a strong defense by any means, I just can't see SD keeping up with them for the reasons above. 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by BadGnOmens:


Hmmm...... If anything I think the patriots will come out fired up... At home.. played poorly last week.. Playing division Biatccccchhhh Jets.......

Also Jets probably feel somewhat accomplished this week after being gifted a W instead of just a Moral Victory...

The only thing that gives me pause is that sometimes Rex can get his boys way up for Pats games and I don't believe that locker room has fallen off the cliff yet....

So maybe from this point of view best bet is the under... Pats will be held down for most of game but will do enough to win. Also without most of his weapons look for the Backs to get around 20 carries, Bill will want to escape to his mini-By week as quick as he can.... Jets offense will sputter and putter for 4 qt's...... Jets play calling made me want to puke..... 

They still use the wildcat at times even when they have a mobile QB who could run the read option..... 

Look forward to ur imput Cap...


Why?

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Zona Detroit favored on the road ok....

Jets, I ain't buying in to week 1 results.  I just don't think belichek cares about blowing them out.  They're already 3 men short from last week.  Not practicing this week.  They go for the win and get the hell out. 

Same question as above, why?

 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by bpbeelen:

Man, a lot of lines jumping out this week. Baltimore laying less than a touchdown against Cleveland is a gift. Also liking the steelers to bounce back. Does everyone really think they're done after one game? Granted, cinci's d-line is a nightmare matchup for them, but this line is way too high, and I love betting on teams that were flat the week prior.

Miami getting points against an overrated colts team looks good to me. I was hoping the rams would get more than 6.5 against Atlanta, but they're another interesting road dog.

Carolina looks good against Buffalo. They're a much better team and should cover.

And how about terelle Pryor laying a touchdown? Yikes. I don't know if I have it in me to bet Jax but its definitely something to consider.

Agree with most of what you had to say here except for 1 in paticular. Vegas doesn't give out gifts

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by winnipeg_pimp:

Like the thread good discussion and info.

Balty-6.5 at home coming off a loss against a rival they have owned for years

No-3 freeman is garbage so is saints defense but I like the saints offense to put up too many points and continue beating teams in the division.

Den-5 ya probably gonna be a huge public play but u wanna bet against a guy who just threw 7 tds and not to mention giants don't know who their starting running back is yet and committed 6 turn overs last game and have a lot of holes in their defense too many giants homers on here

Balt is a completely different team now

 
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Posted: #44
colts -2.5

only struggled against the raiders because they struggle to defend mobile qb's

31-17 colts 
 
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Posted: #45
IMHO Capper,

Bill likes prep time, especially early, he like Kelly, likes to tweak... Ten days off will give him and his players plenty of time to ready themselves for the long haul of the season and post season, a place bill expects to find his team later on...

Bill likes to preach that all games are important.... And while that is true, they are not all equal. This early season divisional game will mean nothing by the end when the Bills, jets, and dolphins have all pooped out and NE has an easy lead in the division standings...

He and brady are very limited offensively... J Edelman will likely be Brady's most explosive air weapon. I see a heavy does of run to give the receivers more space on the field.

And you asked why bill will want to get out of there quickly.... I don't think he will at first.... Then he will se Tom get knocked around, how poorly his offense is playing and Geno being a pesky mobile nat to his defense.... I think after those things bill and staff will put effort into shortening the game. But that is just my thoughts .... Don't mean much and trying to analyze the hoodie is always suspect:/
 
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Posted: #46
Badgnomens  nice stuff buddy ..I think your spot on this game.  
 
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Posted: #47
CLE@BAL: Ravens coming off a disaster loss at Denver. Now they are at home where they were a force over the last years. Baltimore have beaten the Browns ten straight times, it's in the heads of the players. They come into this game thinking they can bounce back easily against a team they have dominated the last years, against a team that scored 10 points on Miami at home. But it isn't the same Ravens team from the last years, let alone the SB champs. They looked awful on D, missing tackles, bad coverage. CLE coming into this game knowing they have nothing to lose but can snap a long losing streak against their divisional rivals. If the Ravens can't get an early lead they will get nervous. Weeden won't throw 3 INT again. He could have gone for over 300 yards easily against Miami. They will convert more than 1 third down this time. Against the Ravens secondary he will have a solid day, bank it. The gameplan will give TRich some more action on the ground, which sets the way for some play action passes downfield. Given the situation the Browns have nothing to lose and Baltimore in a must-win situation with a lot of pressure, I can see good chances for a Browns cover, maybe a straight up win at Baltimore.

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by two4thecash:

CLE@BAL: Ravens coming off a disaster loss at Denver. Now they are at home where they were a force over the last years. Baltimore have beaten the Browns ten straight times, it's in the heads of the players. They come into this game thinking they can bounce back easily against a team they have dominated the last years, against a team that scored 10 points on Miami at home. But it isn't the same Ravens team from the last years, let alone the SB champs. They looked awful on D, missing tackles, bad coverage. CLE coming into this game knowing they have nothing to lose but can snap a long losing streak against their divisional rivals. If the Ravens can't get an early lead they will get nervous. Weeden won't throw 3 INT again. He could have gone for over 300 yards easily against Miami. They will convert more than 1 third down this time. Against the Ravens secondary he will have a solid day, bank it. The gameplan will give TRich some more action on the ground, which sets the way for some play action passes downfield. Given the situation the Browns have nothing to lose and Baltimore in a must-win situation with a lot of pressure, I can see good chances for a Browns cover, maybe a straight up win at Baltimore.



Great input mate
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by BadGnOmens:

IMHO Capper,

Bill likes prep time, especially early, he like Kelly, likes to tweak... Ten days off will give him and his players plenty of time to ready themselves for the long haul of the season and post season, a place bill expects to find his team later on...

Bill likes to preach that all games are important.... And while that is true, they are not all equal. This early season divisional game will mean nothing by the end when the Bills, jets, and dolphins have all pooped out and NE has an easy lead in the division standings...

He and brady are very limited offensively... J Edelman will likely be Brady's most explosive air weapon. I see a heavy does of run to give the receivers more space on the field.

And you asked why bill will want to get out of there quickly.... I don't think he will at first.... Then he will se Tom get knocked around, how poorly his offense is playing and Geno being a pesky mobile nat to his defense.... I think after those things bill and staff will put effort into shortening the game. But that is just my thoughts .... Don't mean much and trying to analyze the hoodie is always suspect:/


What better venue than a primetime divisional game to silence the critics of a poor Patriots week 1 performance? Everyone is down on the Pats right now
 
 
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Posted: #50
takin a long look at the Titans, gonna keep an eye on what the line does
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