!!!! CFB Week 11 !!!!

71-53-4ytd +141.5 units...

8-4 POD's +70 units...

 

Last Saturday was a profitable 8-6 +50 unit day, Nailing some easy winners with Louisville +13, Virginia -3 & La Tech +3 to name a few. Finished last week 10-6 +70 units pushing my run up to 33-20-2 +166.5 units including this weeks 2 wednesday winners with Miami (ohio) full game and 2nd half...

Last weeks weekly thread below:

 https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101173053&page=1

This weeks Wednesday's thread below:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101177904

 

As always be back shortly with hopefully some good info that will keep the money rolling in....

Strong leans:

West Virginia/Cincy over 66.5

Marshall +18.5

Lafayette/Arky st over 58.5

Rutgers/Army under 49

Illinois pk

Tenn/Arkansas under 54.5

 

1st play is:

Virginia Tech ML -112 for 40 units... First off it's never a good thing to see most of the action coming in on one side yet have the spread move in the other direction. That's always been part of sports betting 101 (it's just not always acted upon). Secondly I have noticed that Va Tech seems to be playing football of a caliber of doing just enough to win games as it shows in their 8-1su & 2-7ats records. However in their defense they have been favored by at least a TD or more in every single game this season. Six of those games they were favs by 14.5 or more and 5 of them were 17 or more. So it's no big surprise to me that they have won almost all of their games but struggle a bit to cover the big spreads. What put this play over the top for me was noticing the 3 road victories for the Hokies this season the Hokie's have outgained their opponents in yardage @ 1682 to 1009. Also in those 4 games Va Tech who are the 6th ranked team in the nation against the run were able to hold their opponents to 180 yards on 101 carries for an average of 1.78 yards per carry. The 3 road games prior to their most recent game against Duke they were actually able to hold ECU, Wake Forest & Marshall to a putrid 80 yards on 73 carries for an average of 1.09 yards per carry. Not exactly a good thing for a team like Georgia Tech who will rely on the run to genarate pretty much all of their yards. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket's have ran a total of 612 plays this season and 501 of them have been running plays. Thats a whooping 82% run to pass ratio. It should also be noted that Georgia Tech's success on the run has come against the 22nd, 36th, 55th, 81st, 95th, 106th, 114th & 120th run defense's (Western Carolina not mentioned). So with the 6th ranked defense against the run (Va Tech) and a much valued spread based on this season I am all over the Hokies in this game when I'm sure most will be playing the big time paper tiger that the Yellow Jacket's are. Va Tech has a damn good running back in junior tailback David Wilson (1288 yards from scrimage this season & 8td's) as the Hokies them self are have been able to average 200 yards per game on the ground this season with a much more balanced attack to support the cause. Georgia Tech is no run stopper as they allow 169 yards per game on teh ground and that should be a major concern for them as tonights game approaches. My largest wager tonight of the season on the Va Tech Hokies...POD

Very good write up 

3 LB injury for VT :

Alonzo Tweedy
Bruce Taylor
Jeron Gouveia-Winslow

you think what about that ?

good luck odds!

I'm with ya... the boys have been sliding bye and winning ugly but this one I'm sure has been circled.. Who the hell would circle Duke regarding football??? They are hurt, playing like crap, going against the ALL mighty GT Wreck who beat the unstoppable Clemson Tigers and yet the line is +1 GT??? Vegas wants the GT love and they got it but VT pulls this one out with Wilson and the makeshift D coming alive tonight

Most definitely this is a concern, but not big enough for me to devalue the Hokies in this spot. They played without Taylor for the first time last week and will be with out Tweedy this week. Frank Beamer would also not suger coat the losses of his important plays but said that  senior Barquell Rivers and sophomore Jack Tyler will take Taylor’s place.

“We’ve got a lot of confidence in both those guys,” he said.

I have a lot of faith in things Frank Beamer has said over the years as his record speaks for itself. His counter part Paul Johnson can not be put in the same type of category as he has had tendencies to finish his seasons on a poor note. Last year after Paul Johnsons squad went 5-2su they followed up that with a 1-5su finish. I have no faith in Paul Johnson in bigger games. I just can't give him credit with his run, run , run technique in teh big games. BOL...

I can't erase out of my head that in Va Tech's past 21 games their only 2 losses have been Clemson this year and Stanford in last years bowl game as they have quietly went 19-2su & 12-9ats in those games. Frank Beamer should be able to rise to the occasion tonight on the big stage. Sorry I just can't put Georgia Tech in the class of a Stanford from last season or a Clemson of this year (even though Georgia Tech beat Clemson last game). Both Clemson and Stanford losses their was 491 passing yards against Va Tech combined for an average of 245 yards per game in the air. Georgia Tech is going to need to surpass their seasonal average of 328 yards per game on the ground to win this game because they wont be getting much help in the air IMO...BOL

Thanks for your answer

you have clarified the situation for me and I'm definitely on VT


Best of luck buddy

BOL on VTech tonight. WIth you on it myself

BEST OF LUCK TO EVERYONE. VIRGINIA TECH

BOL guys. Lets hope the Hokie defense have their way with the one dimensional Yellow Jacket's who can not seem to win big games...

I'm a Hokie Homer, and to be honest, we will win or loose as a direct result of our kicking game. To date, VT punting has been embarassing, and Journell is nursing a hammy. I think VT has all the pieces aside from giving up key field position. Hopefully, they start off on the right "foot"......(sorry)

Go Hokies

 

Well I hope your wrong. The day I have to start factoring in Kicker's to my number's and capping of these games should be the day i may have to cease from wagering on these games any longer. You are correct though as there are clearly some kicking games out there that just flat out stink to the high heavens and Va Tech is one of them for sure. I think having and understanding of that is ok, and if I lose tonight because of the kicking game that would definitely be sicking...

gl with  vtech and vtech second half when they are down 

Quote Originally Posted by badlands:

gl with  vtech and vtech second half when they are down 

Says the sports bettor who has apparently made 5 full game football wagers on a night with just 4 football games. You can not resist the temptation of action for sure Bads. I would say to most that maybe one day you will learn, but it's pretty clear and very apparent that day is not forthcoming. BOL on you traffic jam wagering, I don't know how you keep your sanity during it all?

With you on the Hookies.  Good luck with the big play OB  

on the other side bro. bol 

insatiable...

handpicked...

MIKECOUU78... Very kind words, and I hope it works out for the both of us...

keepitstrict...BOL Strict...

jrhdgolf9... Let's hope that's the case. I'm not a big player on these type's of situations over the long haul but they definitely have a positive vibe attached to making money over the long run. BOL to us as the line is just begging for that GT money...

wmi799...BOL to us...

Lightweis...Go Va Tech...

Tizman...No need to be sorry bro, handle your business...

badlands... Could be a 2nd half wager. You never know. Lets see how the 1st half plays out 1st and see where the possible value lies...

si1ly...BOL to us Si1ly...

cag787... BOL Cag's. Do your thing...

TREE88...Mucho appreciation...

BOL oddsbuster  

In no way shape or form am i touching tonights half time number on this Tech game. GT -.5 and 24ish was what I was seeing. I have no desire to dabble into any of that. I pondered a Central Mich +4 wager but didn't pull the trigger...