NBA BREAKDOWN Wednesday 03/30 (13 games)

Rockets @ Sixers -3.5 O/U: 210

Rockets are playing 3^rd game in 4 nights here as this is the last game of their 3-game East-coast roadie.   This team has won 6 of their 7 games after another easy victory last night.  Philly is coming off a very impressive road victory @ Chicago, in which the D held the Bulls to only 85 points.  This is a ‘revenge’ game for Houston after losing to Philly in mid-February as -4.5 point home favorites.  O/U in that game was 205 as the game went OVER.  Obviously on b2b and last game of the road-trip, books aren’t expecting Houston to play much D in this one.  Philly has been playing to the OVER in 4 games prior to the Bulls matchup.  Leans:  PASS as I don’t see an angle to back either side and OVER.

Cavs @ Bobcats OFF (Projected: -10)

Cavs are playing a b2b game here and 3^rd in 4 nights.  What’s more important though is how they do against the Heat at home, as I expect this team to use up a lot of energy.  (This game is currently still going on with Cavs actually winning in the 2^nd half).  Bobcats are 1 game out of a playoff spot, so expect them to play well.  Charlotte has covered the spread in both home meetings this year and if Cavs win against the Heat, I expect this to be a fairly easy game for the Bobcats.  The O/U’s were: 185.5 U; 191 O; and 197.5 U.  Both teams are playing better D and Cavs have played 7 straight UNDERS (prior to the Heat game).  Leans:  Bobcats and UNDER.

Bucks @ Raptors OFF (Projected: -2.5)

This is a so-called ‘sandwich’ game for the Bucks.  They just played the Bobcats, losing a heart-breaker by 1 point.  Now travel to see the Raptors, prior to going to face the Pacers on April 1^st.  The Bucks are 3 games out of the 8^th spot, but could potentially get much closer after their game in Indiana on Friday.  Every game is critical for this squad, so tonight’s game is not a typical ‘sandwich’ game, as I expect Milwaukee to go all out.  (They really have no choice anymore).  Raptors are a mess.  They’ve lost 4 in a row, and this will be their first game back home after a 5-game road-trip.  They did have 3 days off prior to this one, but one would still expect them to come out a bit sluggish tonight.  With trade rumors swirling around and injuries to a number of their players, it’s really hard to back this Raptors squad right now.  The O/U’s were:  205.5 U; 192.5 O; 193 U.  Raptors don’t play any D, and I’m wondering how motivated the Bucks will be to play ‘shut-down’ D with a game against Pacers coming up.  Leans:  Bucks and OVER.

Heat @ Wizards OFF (Projected: -12)

This game also depends on what happens with Heat/Cavs tonight.  If somehow Cavs hold on to win the game, one has to expect the Heat players taking it out on the Wizards tonight.  Wizards are coming off a long 5-game West-Coast trip and had a long flight back home, arriving yesterday morning.  In addition, they’re coming off an OT win @ Utah as an underdog and this team is 0-8 ATS coming off a win like that.  Keep an eye on the Cavs/Heat result as well as the line since the book-makers are sure to over-inflate this one.  The O/U’s: 196.5 O; 193.5 U; 203.5 O.  I expect Miami to score a lot of points in this one, the question is will the Wizards?  Not so sure about the latter one.  Leans:  Heat and UNDER.

Pistons @ Pacers OFF (Projected: -6)

Revenge game for the Pacers as Pistons beat them 5 days ago.  Detroit hasn’t played since that game, thus they should be rested for this one.  Pacers had 1 day off, so they should be ready as well.  The home-team has won every meeting so far this year, but Detroit is 3-0 ATS in those games.  Will the Pacers get a cover tonight or will they be ‘looking-ahead’ to the Bucks on Friday?  In a tight race like this, I don’t expect there to be a ‘look-ahead’, and with Bobcats hosting the Cavs tonight (I expect Bobcats to win obviously), this is a big game for the Pacers.  The O/U’s in previous meetings:  200.5 O; 203.5 U; 202.5 U.  Don’t look now, but Detroit is beginning to play some defense lately.  I expect Pacers to play tough as well in this one, especially on a defensive end.  Leans:  Pacers and UNDER. 

Magic @ Hawks OFF (Projected: +2.5)

Both J. Nelson and J. Johnson are listed as probable so I expect both to play in this one.  Obviously, the question is, can anyone back the Hawks against a ‘quality’ opponent?  It obviously depends on the line, but if it’s around +2.5  to +3.5 range, then there’s just not enough value on Atlanta.  It’s actually a ‘double-revenge’ game for the Magic, who after winning a close one in the first meeting lost 2 in a row to the Hawks.  Obviously this game is a preview of the 1^st round matchup between the 2 squads, so will we see a ‘playoff’ type intensity or both teams going through the motions, not wanting to give away anything prior to the playoffs?  Tough to say.  This game will be won by whoever wants it more and I’m just not sure who that is right now.  The O/U’s were:  194 U; 187.5 U; 190 U.  The UNDER has hit 6 of the last 7 meetings between these squads in Atlanta.  Even so, I can’t get a good feel for this game.  Leans:  PASS all around for now.

Nets @ Knicks OFF (Projected: -9)

Nets are getting spanked by Houston at home tonight, as the Knicks are coming off a big OT win against the Magic at home.  Nets will be playing on b2b as the Knicks had a day off.  Even so, New Jersey won’t have to travel far and D-Will is expected to be back for this one (at least that’s what some of the reports said earlier today).  Either way, I don’t expect either team to really be fatigued here.  The Knicks have beaten the Nets twice, in as many meetings, this season, so technically this is a ‘revenge’ spot for New Jersey.  Still, I believe New York will want this game more than the Nets, who seem to be going through the motions, losing 7 of their last 8 games.  The O/U’s in the previous two meetings were:  205 O and 204.5 U.  Neither team is playing much D right now.  Leans:  Knicks and OVER.

Warriors @ Memphis -10.5 O/U: 210

3^rd game in 4 nights for the Warriors, as Memphis had 2 days off.  I’ve talked in detail about Warriors’ struggles on the road recently, and though it looks like they might cover tonight, tonight’s game is not going to be easy.  Memphis has a lot of size and they will be very motivated in this one, as they’re in a fight for the 8^th playoff spot in the West.  Each team has won one game on their own home court this season, so I don’t expect the Grizzlies to take GSW lightly in this one.  The outcome of the Warriors/Thunder game might determine which way I’m leaning in this one.  The O/U’s: 218.5 O and 210.5 O.  Memphis is actually playing very good D right now and Warriors will be in a ‘fatigue’ spot in this one.  Lean:  Grizzlies and UNDER.

Blazers @ Hornets +1 O/U: 182

Last game of a 3-game roadie for Blazers, while the first game for the Hornets after their own 3-game road-trip.  New Orleans found out how tough it is for them to compete without West against ‘taller’ teams in their last game against the Lakers.  Now they’ll face another team that has size and depth.  The Hornets are 2-1 against the Blazers this season, with Portland winning the last one at home.  To me this game comes down to the match-ups, and I just see a clear advantage for the Blazers in most positions.  The O/U’s: 188 O; 189 U; 184 O.  This posted total is the lowest of the 4.  Are the bookies tipping their ‘hand’ in this one?  Leans:  Blazers and UNDER.

Kings @ Nuggets -12 O/U: 217

This is a 2-game, home/away set between the 2 clubs.  The 2^nd game is in Sacramento on Friday.  Kings are coming into this one playing 3^rd game in 4 nights.  Denver, actually had 4 days off, giving themselves a chance to rest and more importantly, get healthy.  In addition, Sacramento destroyed the Nuggz in their last meeting, so this is a ‘revenge’ scenario as well.  This spread is fairly high, but it’s pretty accurate.  Scheduling and situational angles favor the Nuggz in this one.  The O/U’s:  208.5 U and 206.5 O.   This total is 10 points higher than the previous two, so again the books are tipping their ‘hand’ with this one.  Nuggz are going to run all day long.  Kings will be too tired to play much D.  Leans:  Nuggz and OVER.

Thunder @ Suns +2.5 O/U: 212

Both teams are playing on 2^nd of a b2b and 3^rd game in 4 nights.  One team is cruising into the playoffs and playing solid D, while another one is quickly losing ‘ground’ and is falling apart defensively.  Okie City is 2-1 against the Suns this season and Phoenix is on ‘revenge’ in this one.  How today’s games end will impact my leans in this one.  The O/U’s: 214.5 O; 214 O; 211 O.  Are we to expect a low scoring game when both teams are in ‘fatigue’ spot in this one?  Leans:  Need more info for a lean on the side and OVER.

Mavericks @ Clippers +4.5 O/U: 199

Mavs are playing their 3^rd game of a 6-game roadie.  They have the Lakers tomorrow but obviously won’t have to travel anywhere for that one.  Clips have a ‘double-revenge’ in this one.  Dallas is slightly over-valued in this one, but it’s justified as Clips are 1-6 ATS in their last 7.  Dallas is 5-3 ATS against the Clips in their last 8 meetings.  The O/U’s: 190.5 U; 192.5 O.  This line is pretty high in comparison to the other two.  Dallas is playing really solid D right now, but I’m wondering how big of a ‘look-ahead’ this game will be for them.  I expect them to ‘save’ themselves a bit for the game against the Lakers tomorrow.  Leans:  PASS and OVER.

guys,

Keep in mind, I was working on these as the games were still going on.  You can pretty much fill in the blanks for the ones involving teams from tonight's games....

solid stuff only one I don't agree with is Bobcats like -10 I think the Cavs will be energized from tonight's win and will be able to hang around with a wounded Bobcats team

BOL and bounce back strong tomorrow buddy

Interesting...you think they're just on 'cruise control' now going into the last couple of weeks of the season?

Yes.  Nuggz just got very 'deep' again

That's according to my model.  I hope the number is lower when it comes out.  We shall see

Great analysis NBA.  I have the Bobcats and Hawks games circled already.  Not sure about the Mavs @ Blazers yet...

working on it right now

Really?  Interesting.  I guess just different ways to look at it.  I think it's a HUGE 'let-down' spot for Cleveland and 'Cats can 'smell' the playoffs.   I hope the number is under -10 here...