US Presidential Election Betting Odds: Gavin Newsom Takes Lead in Early Race

Vice President JD Vance has fallen out of the lead in odds to win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election for the first time this cycle.

Democrat and California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the new favorite to secure a seat in the Oval Office at bet365 sportsbook. He has a 23.1% implied probability, 0.8% ahead of Vance.

Current President Donald Trump has flirted with the idea of seeking a third term, despite that being against the U.S. Constitution. He does not appear on bet365’s oddsboard.

2028 US Election odds

Candidate	Odds to win 2028 US election at
Gavin Newsom	+333
JD Vance	+350
Marco Rubio	+750
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	+1400
Jon Ossoff	+2000
Tucker Carlson	+2000
Josh Shapiro	+2500
Kamala Harris	+3300
Pete Buttigieg	+3300
Gretchen Whitmer	+3300
Ron DeSantis	+3300
Mark Kelly	+3300
JB Pritzker	+3500
Ivanka Trump	+3500
Donald Trump Jr.	+4000
Andrew Beshear	+4000
Wes Moore	+3300
Dwayne Johnson	+3300

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 7, 2026. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.

Newsom has been the presumptive Democratic nominee essentially since Trump won the election. He was rumored to make a late entry into the last election, although the Democrats eventually positioned former vice president Kamala Harris as their nominee.

California’s Gov.’s new odds are up from +375 in the middle of February and +350 in early April. His implied probability rose 2% during that time.

Vance took a steep fall in early 2026. After being installed at +220 in February, his line of +350 means that he is now 8.2% less likely to win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election than he was roughly 70 days ago.

U.S. Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio is the third in a three-man race atop the Presidential Election oddsboard. His +750 line (11.8% probability) is considerably down from the +500 odds he had last month, but they’re also up from the +1,000 he had in February.

Rubio has been a prominent figure in directing America’s foreign policy, particularly with the armed conflict involving Iran. The evolution of that situation has closely coincided with movements in his odds. 

Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY) is the standalone candidate in a second tier of odds at +1,400. She’s followed by 39-year-old Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff (GA), who rose from +3,300 to +2,000 over the last month and change. 

Former conservative-turned-independent political commentator Tucker Carlson is also at +2,000 after he did not appear on bet365’s odds about a month ago.

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Celebrities, notable figures

Action movie protagonist and Hollywood star Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson could still mix it up with other prominent candidates, as bet365 has him at +4,000 odds (2.4% implied probability) to win the next election. For context, that’s in the same neighborhood as two of Trump’s children, Ivanka (+3,500) and Donald Jr. (+4,000).

Former First Lady Michelle Obama is listed at +5,000; CEO of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon is +5,000; U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is +6,600; and sports commentator Stephen A. Smith is +10,000.

2028 US Election Winning Party Odds

Winning Party	Odds to win 2028 US election at	Implied probability
Republican	+137	42%
Democrats	-175	64%
Independent	+3300	3%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 7, 2026.

The Democratic Party is a strong favorite to win the next presidential election despite two of the top three individual candidates representing the Republican Party.

There hasn’t been any movement in these odds in more than a month.

US presidential election winners

Only three U.S. Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

US presidential election trends

• Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
• The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
• A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
• James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.

Betting on the election in the United States

U.S. states do not allow for election betting in an effort to protect election integrity and the democratic process. Legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. 

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

In Ontario, there are multiple legal options to place bets including:

BetMGM: The sportsbook best known for its flagship US brand has expanded in Europe and is among the market leaders in Canadian gambling

bet365: Maybe the biggest name in global sports betting, bet365 allows bets on not only the winning president but also the winner in most states

DraftKings: One of America's leading sportsbooks also allows punters to try their luck on presidential betting in Ontario

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