The 2020 US Election odds sent betting records tumbling in the UK, with many firms announcing that it had broken records for the most bet-on event in the history of their sites—and political bettors are once again casting their eyes across the pond with interest.
Following the events at the US Capitol on January 6, which shocked not just Americans but the world at large, bookmakers have slashed the odds of President Donald Trump being impeached for the second time in just over a year.
Smarkets, a British betting exchange, is currently a price of -10,000 that the President will stand trial in the Senate once more. In simple terms, this means that a bet of one dollar would net a profit of just one cent if it comes to pass.
This is in stark contrast to one week ago, where the same firm priced impeachment proceedings being brought against Trump at +210. In implied probability, this suggested just a 32 percent chance it would transpire. It is worth mentioning that this market hinges on Trump facing trial, rather than him being convicted and removed from office.
Smarkets are offering a parallel market which allows bettors to wager on whether the President will serve a full term, and the figures suggest that successful impeachment is considered unlikely—the odds of him departing the White House prior to the end of his natural term are +700, or 12.5 percent in implied probability.
"It is unlikely that more than a handful of Senate Republicans would put their political careers on the line to convict their own president, regardless of how they may feel privately," said Smarkets political analyst Patrick Flynn.
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