NBA Picks

It should be a surprise if the Oklahoma City Thunder play Jalen Williams tonight after aggravating his hamstring last night in Phoenix. In his and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s absences, someone has to handle the ball for OKC. Enter Aaron Wiggins.

In contrast to last season's 24.0 mark, Cam Thomas's points per game have dropped this season to 15.9.. The Bucks have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.. Offensive rebounds save possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Milwaukee Bucks rank 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.6 offensive boards per game this year.

Deni Avdija is trading at -105 for the over 22.5 points, a number I’m happy to exploit given that I price it closer to -145. He draws a matchup against the Utah Jazz, who on paper have the rim protection to slow his turbo-charged downhill game, but it’s fair to question how much those defenders will actually see the floor. Utah is coming off another win and is playing on the second night of a back-to-back. They’ve already shown a willingness to rest starters late in games as part of their tanking strategy, and this spot provides a clear path to limiting minutes—or even sitting key players entirely on Thursday. The Jazz want to lose games but keep accidentally winning. Do I expect them to deploy disciplined, game-specific coverages to consistently stop Avdija’s downhill attack? I don’t.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 3-7 both straight up and against the spread over their last 10 games and fell 133-109 in Minnesota on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz cruised past Sacramento 121-93 at home and are 6-0 ATS over their last six games. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, but it’s far easier to stay home than travel and play at altitude. Utah’s activity at the trade deadline signaled its intent to remain competitive, and rookie Ace Bailey is starting to flash his potential, averaging 16.1 points over his last 12 contests. Take the team with more momentum catching points at home.

The Los Angeles Lakers have covered the spread in their last three games against the Dallas Mavericks. Continuing this will not tie to Luka Doncic at all, sidelined with a hamstring worry, but Cooper Flagg’s absence looms even larger, robbing Dallas of its best and sometimes only offenisve option.

With Luka Dončić sidelined, LeBron James has every opportunity to put on a show against the Dallas Mavericks. His points prop is sitting at -112 for the over 22.5, and that’s a number worth attacking given that I price it much closer to -175. Daniel Gafford provides solid rim protection, but he’s typically limited to around 20 minutes per game. During the stretches when he’s off the floor, Dallas lacks a true back-line defender who can consistently disrupt LeBron’s downhill attacks. The Mavericks also struggle with communication and transition defense. Even at this stage of his career, LeBron remains elite at running the floor and capitalizing on early scoring opportunities. With his basketball IQ and ability to exploit defensive lapses, he should be able to pick apart this version of the Mavericks’ defense.