NBA Picks

P.J. Washington was trading with a total of 11.5 points for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and with no adjustment to his price for Game 2, I'm definitely hitting the button on the Over. What stands out with Washington is that he was able to get Over the 11.5-point mark in Game 1 with 14 points without making a three-pointer. While many of the Mavericks players were getting stuffed at the rim, Washington used his size and body to finish in the paint. If Washington can knock down some shots from the perimeter, combined with what he showed us around the rim, this total of 11.5 points looks way too low. Washington is projected to score 13.6 points in Game 2, which allows us to price the over 11.5 points at -159.

If the Boston Celtics are going to use Jaylen Brown on Luka Doncic, the Dallas Mavericks will have to make some counter moves. We saw a glimpse of what this could look like in the second half when P.J. Washington posted up Derrick White. Washington is a 1.5 (+100) assists type of player when he is standing in the corner, but if his role evolves into post-ups and the Celtics have to send help, I'm hitting the Over on the 1.5 assists at +140. Doncic and Kyrie Irving were also being harassed and had to work extremely hard bringing the ball up the floor. I wouldn't be surprised if Washington has some opportunities to be on the ball more to take the pressure off Irving and Doncic and allow Washington to get downhill into the lane where he can score or create offense. Washington is projected to have 1.8 assists on Sunday in Game 2, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -111.

The Boston Celtics are continuously matchup hunting Luka Doncic and making him guard the ball at every opportunity they can generate. One of the players they are doing this with is Jaylen Brown, which allowed him to knife his way through the lane repeatedly. Brown didn't go Over his assists total in Game 1 as he only had two assists, but the potential assists were there as he posted eight. The eight potential assists is a big number, but it honestly could have been much higher when you watch the film, as Brown kicked out to several three-point shooters who ended up making an additional swing pass. If Game 1 hadn't been a blowout and Brown had played the final five minutes of the fourth quarter, there's a strong possibility we would be seeing a much different price for this prop in Game 2. Brown is projected to drop 3.5 dimes in Game 2 against the Mavericks, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -203.

I see Jaylen Brown delivering another big scoring night in Game 2, and I’m jumping on the Over on his points prop, which is set at 22.5. That feels too low for an in-form, three-level scorer who had poured in at least 24 points in four straight contests heading into these Finals, including a 40-point clinic against the Indiana Pacers in the last round. Brown is averaging almost 25 points in the 2024 playoffs and was set to blow past this O/U line in Game 1 until the scoreline got so lopsided that Boston Celtics’ starters sat out the final minutes. He didn’t just settle for long jump shots either, forcing his way to 11 free-throw attempts.

Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics in points per game this postseason (25.3), but he's been much less efficient than he was in the regular season, with his FG% dropping from 47.1% to 43.8%, and his 3P% falling from 37.6% to 29.9%. With his point total prop set at 26.5, that has me looking at some of his other markets. Tatum will continue to see major minutes unless Game 2 is an even bigger rout than Game 1, which I don't anticipate after the Mavericks plateaued at an uncharacteristic 89 points. He's taken advantage of that by amassing 10.4 rebounds per game and 5.9 assists per game. His points + rebounds prop line is set at just 14.5, a line he's cleared in 12 of his first 15 playoff games this year.

Few expected the instant impact that Porzingis would have in the series opener on Thursday. After missing more than a month with a calf injury, Porzingis came off the bench to drop 20 points on 8-13 shooting. The 7-foot-2 big man showed little rust, especially with the touch on his jumper, and it's clear that the Mavs don't have a defender capable of matching up against him. The one area of his game where he wasn't at full strength was his fitness and he finished with a modest 21 minutes. However, he's sure to see his minutes ramp up as he gets his cardio back and an increase in playing time will lead to even more scoring opportunities for the Unicorn.

Kyrie Irving had just a pair of assists in Game 1 while posting only three potential assists. Irving also had just two dimes when these teams last met in the regular season on March 1, with Dallas at full strength. Irving has now gone below 4.5 assists in six of his last eight games and I don't see him surpassing that number in Game 2 against a stingy Celtics defense. 

The Mavs shot just 7-for-27 from beyond the arc in Game 1 but Josh Green drained his only attempt from deep. Green hit 1.3 three-pointers per game at a 38.5% clip during the regular season and while his minutes have ticked down a bit during the playoffs, he has still been one of Dallas' top bench players. Green logged 20 minutes in Gm 1 and is averaging 20.2 minutes per game over his last five contests. Since the start of May, Green has knocked down at least one triple in 13 of 14 games and I like his chances of doing that again on Sunday.