TOUR Championship Live Odds, Picks and Predictions: Scheffler Tries to Put Away Field for FedExCup

Just like he was a year ago, Scottie Scheffler is at the top of the board for the TOUR Championship with a two-stroke advantage. Rory McIlroy was able to catch and pass him in 2022, but will this year be different?

Last Updated: Aug 25, 2023 8:42 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
PGA TOUR Championship Scottie Scheffler
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The FedExCup championship will be settled this weekend at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

With action underway on Thursday morning, Scottie Scheffler enters as the favorite, and if that rings a bell, it's because the exact same scenario happened in 2022. Scheffler suffered a Sunday meltdown for the ages to enable Rory McIlroy to win the FedExCup last year, but he could easily earn redemption in this spot.

Of course, there are 28 other golfers who would like to steal the spotlight from the Top 2 in the wagering. Here are the latest betting odds to win the 2023 TOUR Championship.

Odds to win 2023 TOUR Championship

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Notes on the Field

Thirty of the world's best golfers will descend on East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the TOUR Championship this weekend. Under the current format, FedExCup points leader Scottie Scheffler will open with a two-stroke advantage at 10 under with the rest of the golfers staggered based on their place in the standings.

Here is how the board will shake out when the opening round kicks off: 

  • -10: Scottie Scheffler
  • -8: Viktor Hovland
  • -7: Rory McIlroy
  • -6: Jon Rahm
  • -5: Lucas Glover
  • -4: Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • -3: Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, Rickie Fowler
  • -2: Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim
  • -1: Collin Morikawa, Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Jason Day
  • Even: Sam Burns, Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton

TOUR Championship picks and predictions

Xander Schauffele Top 5 (Including starting strokes)

I was very tempted to take Schauffele to win outright at +2,800 considering how well he’s played at East Lake over the course of his career, but starting seven strokes behind Scottie Scheffler is less than ideal.

Not to say big comebacks haven’t happened in the format before. Rory McIlroy has won from five shots back in 2019 and six shots back in 2022. But Scheffler this season looks like a different beast.

That doesn’t mean Schauffele can’t storm up the leaderboard this weekend. No one in this week’s field has gained more true strokes at East Lake than Schauffele. Here are his results over the last five years here: T7, 2, T2, T5, 4.

While Schauffele hasn’t broken through with a win yet this season, he has been one of the most consistent players on tour all year. He only has one finish worse than T24 dating back to THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP and has seven Top-10 finishes over that stretch, including a T8 last week at the BMW Championship.

Schauffele also hits all the key metrics. He ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach, fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting, and sixth in total strokes gained.

Like I said, seven strokes feels like a lot to overcome to win but Schauffele is more than capable of making a push and finishing his season strong. 

My best bet: Xander Schauffele Top 5 (including starting strokes) (+280 at DraftKings)

Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (Including starting strokes) 

Tommy Fleetwood is eventually going to win on the PGA Tour after coming painfully close a few times this year. Unfortunately, his odds of ending that drought this weekend are long at +5,500 since he begins the weekend at East Lake seven strokes behind leader Scottie Scheffler.

But like Xander Schauffele, I like Fleetwood’s chances of moving up the leaderboard. For starters, he begins the Tour Championship at -3, tied for 11th place. So, he only has to move up one spot over the course of the tournament.

Also, like Schauffele, despite having no wins this season, he comes into the TOUR Championship playing some really good golf.

Fleetwood has six Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts, which includes his gut-wrenching playoff loss to Nick Taylor at the RBC Canadian Open, and Top 10s in the US Open and the Open Championship.

While he hasn’t played at East Lake since 2019, he still ranks in the top half of the field when it comes to true strokes gained on this course. Overall, this season, he ranks fifth in total strokes gained, 35th in SG: Approach, and 15th in SG: putting.

It has felt like Fleetwood has been in contention week-in, week-out, recently. Always knocking on the door of that first PGA Tour victory, but never quite stepping through that opening. And even though it may be out of reach this week, he should put on another solid performance.

My best bet: Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (including starting strokes) (+150 at DraftKings)

TOUR Championship field and favorites

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler earned the dubious distinction of tying a PGA TOUR record for the largest 54-hole lead blown in last year's TOUR Championship, surrendering a six-stroke advantage with a +3 in the final round. He returns to East Lake trying to make amends as the betting favorite.

Scheffler enters the TOUR Championship in good form despite not posting a win since the THE PLAYERS Championship back in March, with five Top 4s in his last seven tournaments.

Hot on Scheffler's heels in the betting is Rory McIlroy, the man who caught and passed him to secure last year's FedExCup. 

McIlroy, No. 2 in the Official World Golf Ranking, must overcome Scheffler's three-stroke head start over the course of 72 holes. Since being cut from The Masters, McIlroy has missed the Top 10 only once over a span of 10 tournaments, including his triumph in the Scottish Open.

Viktor Hovland is fifth in the OWGR but second in the FedExCup standings, hence why he only has to make up two strokes on Scheffler in the TOUR Championship. Nevertheless, he enters this tournament as the consensus third choice.

Hovland had been in mediocre form going into the BMW Championship, but now he enters East Lake with the momentum of a win in that tournament, highlighted by an incredible score of 61 he posted on Sunday.

Check out the full FedEx Cup Standings ahead of this week's action. 

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Past FedExCup Champions

The FedExCup was inaugurated in 2007 when Tiger Woods became the first to hoist the trophy. He is one of two golfers to win the FedExCup Tour on two occasions. No one has three titles in this span, though Rory McIlroy would become the first if he comes out on top this weekend.

Year Champion
2022 Rory McIlroy
2021 Patrick Cantlay
2020 Dustin Johnson
2019 Rory McIlroy
2018 Justin Rose
2017 Justin Thomas
2016 Rory McIlroy
2015 Jordan Spieth
2014 Billy Horschel
2013 Henrik Stenson
2012 Brandt Snedeker
2011 Bill Haas
2010 Jim Furyk
2009 Tiger Woods
2008 Vijay Singh
2007 Tiger Woods

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