Long before being a designated signature event, the Memorial Tournament annually featured one of the strongest non-major fields on the PGA Tour circuit, and that remains the case this year with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlining the favorites in the golf odds.
While recent PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele and Wells Fargo champ Rory McIlroy form a secondary tier in the Memorial Tournament odds, I'm looking further down the board with this week’s free golf picks.
Here are our long shots and sleepers for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
2024 Memorial Tournament sleeper picks
- An to win outright (+6,000 at FanDuel)
- Day to win outright (+8,000 at FanDuel)
- Hodges to win outright (+22,000 at FanDuel)
- An Top 30 (+100 at BetRivers)
- Day Top 30 (+110 at BetRivers)
- Hodges Top 30 (+160 at DraftKings)
Picks were made on 6-4 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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2024 Memorial Tournament and Muirfield Village Golf Club key stats
Muirfield Village underwent a major renovation ahead of the 2021 Memorial, including every green being rebuilt and seven being pushed back to extend the track. The course will stretch to a 7,569-yard Par 72, and penial rough and small, fast Bentgrass greens are the trademarks that make Muirfield one of the toughest tests on tour year in and year out.
The Jack Nicklaus design requires players to use every club in the bag and every shot in their repertoire. Hitting fairways and greens is the easiest path to success, but play on and around the greens has also been critical.
Statistically, Patrick Cantlay and Billy Horschel both finished first in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third in true strokes gained around-the-green to win since the course overhaul, while Viktor Hovland ranked 12th in tee-to-green play and third in true strokes gained putting to win last year.
Reinforcing the multiple avenues to contend, Denny McCarthy has carded consecutive Top 5s while losing true strokes off-the-tee, while Scottie Scheffler paced the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green while ranking 65th in true strokes gained putting to finish third last year.
Taking advantage of the four Par 5s will be important, too, because they were the only holes to play under par last year. The three hardest holes are 16, 17, and 18, and three of the four Par 3s play at 200 yards or longer. Bogey avoidance and scrambling percentage are also important metrics to consider.
- Strokes gained tee-to-green, strokes gained approach
- Par 5 scoring
- Strokes gained around-the-green, scrambling
- Bogey avoidance
- Strokes gained putting
2024 Memorial Tournament sleeper predictions
Byeong Hun An to win outright (+6,000)
Current form and course history both work in An’s favor this week. He enters with five Top 10s this season — including a T4 at the Byron Nelson and solo third at the Wells Fargo to begin May — and gained true strokes across the board at the PGA Championship en route to a ho-hum T43. The South Korean also lost in a playoff in the 2018 Memorial and finished T24 last year.
An ranks 11th in Par 5 scoring on Tour this season, and he’s 20th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and seventh in true strokes gained putting across his past 12 measured rounds.
The +6,000 FanDuel odds are also an outlier. BetMGM has him priced at just +4,500, and the difference checks out as a positive expected value of 46%.
Pick: Byeong Hun An to win outright (+6,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Byeong Hun An Top 30 (+100 at BetRivers)
Jason Day to win outright (+8,000)
This is a long number for Day, and he has the all-around game to contend at Muirfield Village. The 36-year-old Aussie will be playing the Memorial for the 15th time and posted a T4 finish in the 2020 edition before the renovations.
I’m particularly drawn to Day ranking 11th in Par 5 scoring, 14th in bogey avoidance, and 16th in scrambling on Tour this season. He’s also gained true strokes on the greens in eight consecutive events to rank eighth in this field across his past 20 measured rounds. The ball-striking has been inconsistent, but a two-week layoff following the PGA Championship should serve Day well, and he’s carded four Top 10s this season.
There is also a huge gap in the available numbers for the 13-time PGA Tour winner. The +8,000 FanDuel odds offer a positive expected value of 21% compared to the short +6,000 BetMGM odds.
Pick: Jason Day to win outright (+8,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Jason Day Top 30 (+110 at BetRivers)
Lee Hodges to win outright (+22,000)
A disappointing final-round 76 dipped Hodges to a T12 finish at the 2023 Memorial, and I’m anticipating the 28-year-old American having another solid showing at the storied event. Hodges has carded three straight Top 25s, including consecutive T12 showings at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab.
He ranks fifth in true strokes gained on approach, 16th in true strokes gained putting, and 19th in driving accuracy in this field across his past 12 measured rounds, and he’s above average in both scrambling percentage and bogey avoidance. These are long odds for a player in solid form, and there’s also another edge in shopping for the best number.
BetMGM has Hodges priced at just +10,000, which attaches a positive expected value of 121% to the +22,000 FanDuel odds.
Pick: Lee Hodges to win outright (+22,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Lee Hodges Top 30 (+160 at DraftKings)
