Willy Z finally closed the door after a wild playoff against an out-of-nowhere Sepp Straka. This week, the Top 70 in FedExCup standings are moving on to the BMW Championship in Delaware.
With a shorter field, the BMW Championship odds are shorter, too. So, we’ll find the best betting value on some lower star power players in the matchups and top finishers markets this week.
BMW Championship picks
- Kim (+102) over Spieth
- Harman (+115) over Lowry
- Im (-125) over Burns
- Aaron Wise Top 20 (+160)
- Emiliano Grillo Top 20 (+275)
- Trey Mullinax Top 20 (+275)
Picks made on 8/16/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Wilmington Country Club stats that matter
This is the first go for the Tour at Wilmington CC, so we don’t have our typical data, but we do know a few things about the South Course. It’s a traditional 1957 Robert Trent Jones layout that underwent a renovation in 2008 and will play 7,500 yards over a Par 71. Long hitters should have the edge here even though there are some tight landing spots in the mix.
The greens are huge so we’ll worry less about around-the-greens play and focus more on bentgrass putting. We’ll also be looking, as always, at hot approach play. Who’s coming into week two of the playoffs hitting it close?
- Total driving (distance/fairways gained).
- Recent approach play.
- Birdies or better gained.
- Long-term bentgrass putting.
- Recent putting form and three-putt avoidance.
- Recent DraftKings points.
BMW Championship matchup predictions
Joohyung Kim (+102 ) over Jordan Spieth
Spieth missed the cut last week and his game was all-around bad. He did play well overseas but we haven’t seen great form in tour events from Jordan since the Spring. He ranks near the bottom in fairways gained and bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds, so we just don’t think he’s going to magically figure it out this week.
Tom Kim is still out there doing his thing. He’s sixth in birdies or better gained over the last 24 rounds vs. the field and also sixth in bogey avoidance. Plus, in his last four starts, he’s averaging nearly five shots gained with his irons.
Brian Harman (+115) over Shane Lowry
Lowry is playing like he’s worn out. Last week, at TPC Southwind, he was near the bottom tee-to-green. He putted decently but missed tons of fairways and his game didn't improve much from a horrific 83rd place finish at the Wyndham Championship.
Harman was in the opposite form last week when he gained more than five shots with his irons and two with his putter. He’s been avoiding more three-putts and hitting more fairways than Lowry, too. Distance is going to matter this week and Harman is a short knocker, but it’s not like Lowry bombs it, so Harman's consistency gives him the edge here.
Sungjae Im (-125) over Sam Burns
Sungjae is automatic off the tee right now and he’s rolling it great, too. He had a less-than-perfect approach game week at St. Jude but still finished 12th. Prior to that, he had gained 5.2 shots at 3M and 2.8 at Wyndham with his irons.
We think of Burns as being much longer than Sungjae but he ranks 32nd in driving distance vs. 35th for Im and Sungjae crushes him in the quality of his drives. He’s sixth in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds vs. 65th for Burns. Sungjae also has the edge in recent proximity to the hole and DraftKings points.
BMW Championship top finisher predictions
Aaron Wise Top 20 (+160)
This is a good number considering there are only 69 players in the field with Cam Smith withdrawing. Wise was solid off the tee and with his irons last week. He gained four shots on the field with his approach but lost shots around the greens.
That won’t matter as much at Wilmington CC. Wise is on a run of high-quality finishes and he also does some of his best putting on bent.
Emiliano Grillo Top 20 (+300)
One of the hottest putters around is — checks notes — Emiliano Grillo? It’s true! He’s gained multiple strokes rolling the rock in three straight PGA Tour starts, including 2.7 last week at FedEx St Jude. While his irons weren’t hot last week, he still finished 31st and we like the 5.9 shots he gained on approach back at 3M.
Bent is historically his best putting surface and he ranks ninth in good drives gained, 15th in birdies or better gained, and 15th in three-putt avoidance in recent play, according to Fantasy National.
Trey Mullinax Top 20 (+350)
Why wouldn’t we keep rolling with Trey? Also, why is this number so big?
Mullinax is back and he gained five shots with his irons last week on the way to a fifth-place finish. He’s been on a run since his win at the Barbasol and even played great on a last-minute ticket to The Open.
He’s eighth in birdies or better gained over the last two events and 12th in greens in regulation. Plus, he's a better Bentgrass putter than he is on Bermuda, so we think he can drop a few more putts this week. We may also grab a whopping +850 for a Mullinax Top-10 finish at PointsBet.
