2023 BMW Championship Picks & Live Odds: Cantlay's Three-Peat Pursuit is Underway

Coming off a playoff loss to Lucas Glover, Patrick Cantlay will look to become a three-time winner at the BMW Championship after winning in both 2021 and 2022. However, the tournament returns to Olympia Fields, where he finished T12 in 2020.

Last Updated: Aug 17, 2023 8:08 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Patrick Cantlay PGA Tour BMW Championship
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The FedExCup playoffs continue after an exciting finish at TPC Southwind that saw Lucas Glover outlast Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. Fifty golfers have thus qualified for the second round.

Now, the action turns to Olympia Fields, Illinois for the BMW Championship. Cantlay will look to lick his wounds and win his third straight at this event.

We break down the favorites and more in our full BMW Championship betting preview below, including live golf odds and free golf picks

Live odds to win 2023 BMW Championship

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BMW Championship picks and predictions

Eric Cole to record a Top 10 finish

My personal rookie of the year pick on TOUR this year, the 35-year-old has put together a season to remember.

While he has not won an event like fellow rookie Vincent Norrman, Cole has consistently found himself toward the top of leaderboards since the turn of the calendar year. In fact, he has made 12 of his past 14 cuts with four Top 15 finishes over that stretch, including his gritty T15 finish at the PGA Championship.

I bring up that performance specifically because it is indicative of his ability to stand out amongst a loaded field on a particularly difficult course. Oak Hill played similarly to what we will see this week at Olympia Fields, making life difficult for everyone with thick rough and firm greens.

Cole is the last rookie standing in these playoffs, and a Top 10 finish would likely cement his Rookie of the Year honors — an outcome I believe is more likely than the current 6/1 odds project.

My best bet: Eric Cole to record a Top 10 finish (+600 at DraftKings)

Adam Svensson to record a Top 10 finish 

Another golfer to target this week is Adam Svensson. It has been a banner year for Canadian golfers on TOUR, with four victories and the highlight being Nick Taylor’s incredible win in front of a home crowd at the RBC Canadian Open.

Svensson is also responsible for one of those four victories when he hoisted the trophy following his winning performance at The RSM Classic. While the rest of Svensson’s season has not lived up to that performance, he enters this week in good form with five straight Top 40 finishes, including his T7 performance at the Wyndham Championship.

Is it possible for Svensson to crack the Top 10 once again this week?

While that obviously remains to be seen, I figure it to be more likely than the 13/2 odds suggest. The only inconsistent part of Svensson’s game over the past few months has been his putter, which will be crucial for his success this week.

The good news is that the rest of his game has been good, gaining strokes off the tee and tee to green in each of his past four tournaments. Svensson’s putter was the main reason for his victory at The RSM Classic earlier this season, gaining a whopping 3.01 strokes on the greens.

When his putter is on, Svensson possesses a well-rounded game that makes him a solid bet to be on the lower side of the leaderboard. If the putter can get going this week, then a Top 10 finish is not out of the question given the recent success of the other aspects of his game.

My best bet: Adam Svensson to record a Top 10 finish (+650 at DraftKings)

BMW Championship field and favorites

The Top 50 golfers in the FedExCup standings have advanced to the second round of the PGA Tour playoffs.

Patrick Cantlay nearly claimed victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship after shooting 64 on Sunday to force a playoff against Lucas Glover. Now, he'll get a chance to defend his crown as a two-time winner at this event. He's won each of the last two years and is opening around 10/1 to make it three in a row. Now, one issue present is the BMW Championship was not held at Olympia Fields in either of the last two years where Cantlay found success. And the last time it was held on the North Course (in 2020), Cantlay finished a distant T12.

The winner that year was none other than Jon Rahm, who thwarted Dustin Johnson in a playoff. Rahm is available between +750 and +900 across various books and is coming off a disappointing T37 at TPC Southwind. That being said, his struggles were mostly limited to Thursday's opening round, when he shot 73. He shot lower than 69 in each of the tournament's final three rounds.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are the favorites to win this weekend. McIlroy had a strong showing in Memphis, finishing T3 alongside Tommy Fleetwood (+2,200 this weekend) and only one stroke behind Glover and Cantlay. 

Scheffler, like Rahm, finished below expectations, but his scuffles came on the weekend when he shot 71 and 70 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Glover's victory didn't propel him to be among the favorites. He's now fourth in the FedExCup standings, trailing Rahm, Scheffler, and McIlroy.

Check out the full FedEx Cup Standings ahead of this week's action. 

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BMW Championship recent winners and odds history

Let's take a look at some recent BMW Championship winners and their closing odds to win:

Year Golfer Closing odds
2022 Patrick Cantlay +2,000
2021 Patrick Cantlay  +2,500
2020 Jon Rahm +900
2019 Justin Thomas +1,400
2018 Keegan Bradley +10,000
2017 Marc Leishman +4,000
2016 Dustin Johnson +800
2015 Jason Day +650

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

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