It’s final-four hockey betting action as Team USA will face a familiar foe in Team Finland on Monday in World Junior Hockey Championships. Finland has knocked the Americans out of the previous two tournaments with a pair one one-goal victories.
Team USA got off to a rough start in the preliminaries with a 5-3 loss to Russia in its first game of the competition. Since then, the Americans have ripped off four straight wins by a combined score of 27-2, which included three shutouts. World Juniors odds have Team USA as a 1.5-goal favorite (-115) with the total set at 5.5, shaded heavily to the Under.
Team Finland is coming off a dramatic win over rival Sweden that saw the Finns score the go-ahead goal with less than 30 seconds left in the game, helping it advance to the semifinals and a guaranteed medal game appearance.
Here are our World Junior Championship free picks and predictions for Team USA vs. Team Finland on Monday, January 4 (9:30 p.m. ET).
Team USA vs Team Finland Betting Preview
Key Injuries
USA: None to report.
Finland: None to report.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 5-1 in the previous six matchups.
Puck Line Pick
Team USA came into this tournament as the most experienced roster and has a chance to make up for last year’s early exit in the quarterfinals. Sporting arguably the best line in the tournament (Trevor Zegras, Alex Turcotte and Arthur Kaliyev), the Americans have won each of their last four games by at least three goals and have not forgotten about last year’s results to Team Finland.
Special teams have also been a big part of the Americans’ success, as they have converted 7 of 19 powerplay opportunities over their last four games while going 8 for 9 in killing penalties. This is also a team that is smart on the ice and doesn't take many infractions, with two or fewer minor penalties in four of its five games.
Even if the Americans give some ice to Team Finland’s offense, goalie Spencer Knight is there to hold down the fort. Facing an offense that has just four goals in its last two games, Knight is the most experienced goalie in the final four and has stopped 75 of his last 77 shots.
Finland showed a lot of fight against Team Sweden in the quarterfinals after giving up two early goals and being outshot 11-4 in the first period. If Finland comes out flat like that against Team USA, these defensive-minded Americans may not give the Scandinavians a chance to get back into the game.
With motivation and experience on its side, there is a reason why the Americans are the heavy favorite to advance to the finals.
PREDICTION: Team USA -1.5 (-128)
Over/Under Pick
Team USA’s success has a lot to do with its top line, but also the netminding of both Knight and backup Dustin Wolf. The American goalies combined to post three straight shutouts, setting a new tournament record for 218 minutes without allowing a goal before allowing Slovakia to get on the board in Saturday's quarterfinal.
Much like the Canadian team, Team USA is built to defend and have followed that blueprint almost flawlessly after an opening 5-3 loss to the Russians that saw Knight get pulled.
If you’re betting the Over, you’re betting against one of the best goalies in the tournament and that’s something we aren’t comfortable doing. Knight stopped 28 of 29 shots in the previous matchup, which ended 1-0 in favor of Team Finland.
Team Finland has also not had a game that had more than eight goals scored this tournament. Its games are averaging a total of 5.8 goals and the Under is 4-1 for the Finns.
Team USA and Finland have played six games over the last decade with the Over hitting just once—and zero times in an elimination game. Both teams are playing for a lot and have gone through even more to get where they are. We expect a tightly-checked game with teams tentative to take big chances with the puck.
Both teams will also be playing on the same ice surface as the Canada-Russia game. In the quarterfinals, where all four games were played in succession on the same ice, the Over went 0-3-1 O/U.
PREDICTION: Team USA -1.5 (-128)
Team USA vs Team Finland Betting Card
- Team USA -1.5 (-128)
- Under 5.5 (-130)
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Where Can I Bet on the 2021 WJHC?
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