The Winnipeg Jets are playing for their season against the Dallas Stars on Thursday night at Canada Life Center.
Let’s take a look at some players I expect to play pivotal roles in this do-or-die game with my Stars vs Jets props and NHL picks for May 15.
Best Stars vs Jets props
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Pionk o1.5 SOG (-145) -
Johnston o0.5 pts (-110) - Oettinger o26.5 saves (-125)
Stars vs Jets player props for May 15
Neal Pionk Over 1.5 shots on goal (-145 at BET99)
The Dallas Stars have given up a lot of shot volume to defensemen all year long. Neal Pionk has been able to take advantage of that, recording multiple shots on goal in five of the last six against Dallas dating back to the regular season.
Pionk’s attempt outputs are strong as the veteran two-way defenseman has attempted at least four shots in five of six, including 5+ in three of four this series.
Pionk has managed a 78% success rate this season when attempting four shots or more. That hit rate jumps to 85% when raising the floor to five attempts.
It’s a strong positional matchup for Pionk and the Winnipeg Jets are playing for their season. As such, I think he could see even more ice time. His shot totals should reflect that.
Wyatt Johnston Over 0.5 points (-110 at BET99)
The Stars have outplayed the Jets during Wyatt Johnston’s 5-on-5 minutes. They’ve controlled nearly 66% of the expected goals while winning the scoring chance battle by 27-17, a healthy +10 differential.
Considering Johnston is also a focal point of the No. 1 power play unit — not to mention a threat while shorthanded — and there are a lot of avenues for him to create offense.
That’s why Johnston hit the scoresheet in 65% of games this season and produced six points over his last seven playoff contests.
He has quickly earned a reputation as a clutch playoff performer and deservedly so. I expect him to factor heavily in what could be a series clinching game for the Stars.
Jake Oettinger Over 26.5 saves (-125 at BET99)
Jake Oettinger has consistently faced a lot of rubber for months now. He has stopped an average of 29.2 pucks over his last 19 starts, clearing 26.5 saves on 13 different occasions along the way.
The shot volume he’s faced on the road is especially high. He’s stopped 27 shots or more in nine of the last 11 away games, including four of five in these playoffs.
The only road playoff game Oettinger failed to clear this line was in Winnipeg’s Game 3 win. The Jets jumped out to a lead three minutes in, were up by a pair seven minutes in, and had no reason to push for offense throughout while sitting on a multi-goal lead for 53 minutes.
Even if the Jets are able to extend this series, I don’t think it’ll be so easy this time around. Assuming that’s the case, there will be a better game script for saves where the Jets still have reason to push for offense and generate shots.
Elimination games also tend to be hotly contested. In a series where the 5-on-5 goals are 7-7, and the Stars lead by just two on aggregate, there’s also potential for overtime to increase the floor and ceiling for Oettinger.
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