The puck drops in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Tuesday night in Carolina.
The Carolina Hurricanes are favored to win it all for the first time since 2006, while the Vegas Golden Knights look to win their second Cup in five years.
I agree with the market, and will break down why with my NHL picks for the final series of the season.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes picks
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Hurricanes to win series 4-2 |
+450 |
| Over 5.5 games | -190 |
| Jackson Blake to lead series in scoring |
+1900 |
| Hurricanes to win the series |
-155 |
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 +125 |
To win | -155 |
| +1.5 (-150) |
Handicap | -1.5 (+120) |
| Over 5.5 (-190) | Total games | Under 5.5 (+150) |
The Carolina Hurricanes enter the series as -155 favorites to win the Stanley Cup, and carry +120 odds to beat the Vegas Golden Knights by multiple games.
The Hurricanes won 14 more games during the regular season, posted better underlying metrics, and have home ice advantage, so it is easy to see why they are considered clear frontrunners in this matchup.
The total is heavily juiced to the Over of 5.5 games, so a competitive series is expected here, which would be refreshing after two lopsided matchups in the Conference Finals.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes series preview
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes statistical breakdown
The Golden Knights and Hurricanes clashed twice in the regular season, and things didn't go so well for the Stanley Cup favorites.
The Hurricanes dropped both games and were out-scored 10-4 while controlling just over 33% of the expected goals, which is very abnormal.
Context is key. Jaccob Slavin missed both games for Carolina, while K'Andre Miller was also sidelined for one. Those are Carolina's two leaders in playoff ice time, so their absences were certainly noteworthy.
We're also talking about a two-game sample. The Canes graded out better than the Knights in shot share, chance share, expected goal share, and goal share over the course of the entire season.
They were especially dominant at home, where they controlled a league-leading 58.06% of the expected goals and ranked first in points percentage.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes series props
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Knights |
+1900 | +900 | +550 | +550 |
| Hurricanes |
+1000 | +450 | +450 | +425 |
Pick: Hurricanes win 4-2 (+450 at Bet99)
The Hurricanes have only dropped one game through three rounds, but they played Ottawa and Philadelphia teams that lacked high-end firepower, and a fatigued Montreal side coming off back-to-back grueling seven-game series against divisional opponents.
They deserve full marks for taking advantage, but the table was set about as well as it could have been in the Eastern Conference bracket.
Vegas has a combination of elite talent and a strong underlying process that none of Carolina's previous opponents did, which better equips them to test Carolina.
I think the Hurricanes are the better team, and they have home ice, but this series should be legitimately competitive. Playable to +440.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes total game odds
Pick: Over 5.5 (-190 at Bet99)
Eight of the last 11 Stanley Cups have gone at least six games, and one of the exceptions came during a COVID-altered season with full division realignment. That was a strange year where Tampa Bay and Montreal — two Atlantic Division foes — faced off in the Final.
We generally don't see short series in the Stanley Cup, which is to be expected in battles between the cream of the crop.
One thing that should help this series is both teams will have full tanks. The Hurricanes are well-rested from having only one series go more than four games, while the Golden Knights are coming off a sweep and get a full week off between games.
Vegas also last played on the road on May 22, meaning they've had next to no travel.
Expect this series to last, and bet the Over to -200.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes top goalscorer
Pick: Jackson Blake (+1900 at Bet99)
Nobody in the playoffs has recorded more expected goals or high-danger scoring chances than Jackson Blake at 5-on-5, and he's just one back in terms of rebounds created.
He is starting a higher percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone than anybody on the Hurricanes and, clearly, taking advantage of that deployment.
Carter Hart has played well in the playoffs, but Adin Hill was the only goaltender in the NHL with a worse high-danger save percentage in the regular season. If those warts resurface, Blake profiles as a likely candidate to take advantage.
Betable to +1700.
Golden Knights vs Hurricanes series best bet
Pick: Hurricanes to win (-155 at Bet99)
This price implies Carolina has a ~60% chance of winning the series, but I think those odds undersell the Hurricanes a little bit and have a fair price close to -170.
The Hurricanes and Golden Knights have posted similar outputs in high-danger chance generation, but the former has been much better at suppressing them.
I don't see the Hurricanes giving up much at 5-on-5, especially when able to control matchups at home, and their penalty kill has been elite for 95 games. Their team defense should be the difference.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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