The Edmonton Oilers largely outplayed the Florida Panthers in Game 1 but couldn’t solve Sergei Bobrovsky. He turned away all 32 shots he faced for his third career postseason shutout, and Bobrovsky is now the consensus betting favorite in the Conn Smythe odds.
Florida can take a 2-0 series lead with another win tonight, and teams taking a 2-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Final have won the series 91% of the time (49-5) over the past 54 years.
Here’s a look at betting news and insights for Game 2 to help you prepare your NHL picks for the Oilers vs. Panthers matchup on June 10.
Cats stay put
The Florida Panthers aren’t expected to make any lineup changes for Game 2. While it’s rare for a winning lineup to be tinkered with in the postseason, head coach Paul Maurice has the luxury of personnel flexibility up front to make in-game adjustments if things aren’t clicking early.
Forwards Carter Verhaeghe, Vladimir Tarasenko, Anton Lundell, Sam Bennett, and Evan Rodrigues have all moved up and down the lineup during the postseason.
No changes to lines and D pairs at Panthers morning skate:
— Tom Gulitti (@TomGulittiNHL) June 10, 2024
Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart
Tkachuk-Bennett-Rodrigues
Luostarinen-Lundell-Tarasenko
Lorentz-Stenlund-Okposo
Forsling-Ekblad
Mikkola-Montour
OEL-Kulikov
The Bob
Stolarz
Oil make adjustments
The big news following the Edmonton Oilers' morning skate on Monday was the absence of veteran winger Evander Kane, and defenseman Cody Ceci appearing set to be a healthy scratch for Game 2. Kane said he’s playing Monday, so it’s likely Vincent Desharnais sliding in for Ceci is the only move.
Oilers, as expected, make some changes tonight...
— Steve Goldstein (@goldieonice) June 10, 2024
Big d man Deharnais comes in for Ceci
Carrick in on 4th line, Henrique (that guy) moves to wing...#FlaPanthers host G2 tonight @AmerantArena
Here are the 5-on-5 fancy stats for Ceci and Desharnais to this point of the playoffs:
| Player | CF% | Adjusted CF% | GF% | xGF% | Adjusted xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Ceci | 43.6% | 46% | 33.3% | 36.3% | 38% |
| Vincent Desharnais | 47.5% | 49.8% | 29.4% | 52.1% | 54% |
Underlying numbers paint a prettier picture for Desharnais, but he’s averaged only 14:08 of 5-on-5 minutes per game, so his role is limited. Ceci coming out of the lineup also means it’s likely Desharnais and Brett Kulak will be paired on the No. 1 penalty-kill unit.
The Great One Praises Sasha
Aleksander Barkov continuing to hold McDavid in check will be critical for Florida. Barkov held No. 97 off the scoresheet across 15:52 of shared ice time in Game 1, despite Edmonton generating 75.1% of the expected goals. Additionally, McDavid had a 71.4 Corsi For percentage across the 11:34 of 5-on-5 ice time the two were opposite one another.
"No. 16 is the best defensive hockey player I've seen since Bryan Trottier." - Wayne Gretzky
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 10, 2024
Aleksander Barkov was humbled to hear the Great One's comments about him during Game 1 yesterday. pic.twitter.com/xL7OSeKplt
McDavid may have been held off the scoresheet, but Barkov had a lot of help from Sergei Bobrovsky. It’ll be bad news for the Panthers if the ice is that tilted against them with No. 97 buzzing in the offensive zone again in Game 2.
Can Big Show Bob do it again?
Whatever way you slice it, Bobrovsky stole Game 1 for Florida. The Panthers were caved in at 5-on-5, with the Oilers driving possession with a dominant 58.6 CF%, and Edmonton also won the expected goals battle at 68.4% at 5-on-5 and 66.9% overall.
Florida was held to a pedestrian 18 shots on 42 attempts, while Edmonton piled up 18 high-danger scoring chances.
This series could turn dire quickly for Edmonton unless the Oilers can solve Bobrovsky in Game 2, and he’s definitely the X Factor for the Cats.
A glance at the odds
The Panthers opened as a -125 favorite to win the Stanley Cup Final and moved to -130 ahead of Game 1 through BetMGM. Florida is now trading at -250 at the shop to win it all.
Bettors are backing the visiting Oilers in Game 2 with 62% of the betting handle and 57% of the tickets on the Edmonton moneyline. This is the opposite of the Covers consensus on our matchup page, with 64% of picks on the Panthers.
Additionally, 56% of the betting tickets and 87% of the handle is on Florida to win the Stanley Cup through BetMGM.
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