Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Caps Can't Bottle Up Skinner

Prop bet #1: Saves for Sammy

The Florida Panthers are coming off a disappointing 6-4 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday, and I’m expecting them to place an emphasis on putting pucks on net against the Montreal Canadiens and starting goalie Sam Montembeault on Tuesday. Florida ranks second in shots per game (33.4) and second in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage (55.6%), while Montreal allows the fourth-most shots per game (32.9) and ranks 28th in CF% with a 45.9% mark at 5-on-5.

I also value these Sam Montembeault odds because he’s in solid form with a .917 SV% and 2.53 GAA across his past nine starts, including turning away 54 of 57 shots against the high-powered Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche over his latest two outings.

Sam Montembeault prop: Over 28.5 saves (-125 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Skinner capitalizes

Buffalo Sabres winger Jeff Skinner ranks 16th in shots (10.94) and attempts (21.22) per 60 minutes this season, and has respectively racked up 11 and 20 across the past three games. Additionally, Skinner averages 3.41 shots per home game and has regularly traded at a 3.5 shot total over the past three seasons.

The Washington Capitals are also far from a shot-suppressing opponent with 33.3 shots against across their past seven games and a 26th-ranked 46.6 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 for the campaign. 

I also value these Jeff Skinner odds because he’s played to a solid 51.7 CF% and 52.2% shot share at 5-on-5. Skinner skating a little further down the depth chart should open up better on-ice matchups for him with Buffalo having the advantage of last change, too.

Jeff Skinner prop: Over 2.5 shots (+100 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Fading Fowler

Anaheim Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler is having his worst offensive season since the 2018-19 campaign, and he’s been on the ice for a career-low 2.25 goals per 60 minutes. Fowler has also dropped to the No. 2 power-play unit, and he’s playing more of a defense-first role sheltering rookie partner Olen Zellweger.

Additionally, the Ducks have scored the fewest goals (1.43) and generated the fewest expected goals (2.18) per 60 minutes since trading away veteran center Adam Henrique on March 6. Anaheim also has the fifth-lowest Corsi For percentage (46.0%) at 5-on-5 during the stretch, and Fowler has only been on the ice for 0.51 goals per 60 at 5-on-5 and 1.23 overall.

Even with the Calgary Flames being a lackluster defensive opponent, Anaheim and Fowler enter as a league-worst offense. Finally, I’m also targeting these Cam Fowler odds because Calgary has been a far better team on home ice with an eighth-ranked 53.3 CF% and 13th-ranked 52.1 xGF% at 5-on-5 compared to 48.2% and 48.4% marks on the highway.

Cam Fowler prop: Under 0.5 points (-135 at Bet99)