There’s never a dull moment in the NHL playoffs, and another four elimination games dot the docket on Thursday, May 1.
The action opens with the Toronto Maple Leafs looking to advance to Round 2, and the Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights, and Edmonton Oilers can all join them with victories of their own.
Here are my top NHL player props for tonight’s slate.
NHL player prop bets today
Ullmark Over 23.5 saves (-128)
Rantanen Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105)
Zuccarello Under 0.5 points (-111)
Best NHL player prop bets for May 1
Linus Ullmark Over 23.5 saves (-128 at Sports Interaction)
The Ottawa Senators have received excellent goaltending in the past two games with Linus Ullmark turning away 60 of 63 shots with 3.83 goals saved above expected. He doesn’t need to be that sharp in Game 6 to fly to 24 or more saves, either.
I expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to approach 30 shots again tonight, too. Toronto has lost the 5-on-5 possession battle with a 47.6 Corsi For percentage, but the Maple Leafs have won the shot share at a postseason-high 57.5%.
The Maple Leafs also rank second in attempts and third in shots per 60 minutes with the man advantage. As long as Ullmark is up to the task and his play doesn’t fall off the map, he’ll cash this Over.
Mikko Rantanen Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105 at Sports Interaction)
Mikko Rantanen has registered 3+ shots in four of five Round 1 games to pace the Dallas Stars in both shots (18) and attempts (31). He’s also a primary shooter on the No. 1 power-play unit and has settled into a cushy shooting gig with countrymen Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund on the top line.
Rantanen paces Stars forwards in 5-on-5 ice time, is second in overall minutes, and ranked in the 92nd percentile of forwards in shots on goal during the regular season.
Mats Zuccarello Under 0.5 points (-111 at Sports Interaction)
I put this recommendation on the NHL picks page before the Minnesota Wild tweaked their lines during Wednesday’s practice. Sometimes it’s better to be early and chase down the best number, and sometimes patience pays.
Still, I’m sticking with the nod because Wild winger Mats Zuccarello still isn’t projected to skate with superstar Kirill Kaprizov. Zuccarello has also been on the ice for just three goals and 2.85 expected goals at 5-on-5. He sports an eyesore 38.01 Corsi For percentage and 41.1 expected goals percentage for the series.
Additionally, when Zuccarello wasn’t playing with Kaprizov the regular season, he was on the ice for just 2.11 goals and 2.4 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Zucarrello still skates with the No. 1 power-play unit, but the Vegas Golden Knights spent a league-low 3:23 per game shorthanded during the regular season, and they’ve taken a postseason-low 12 penalties through five games. Vegas also allowed the third-fewest goals per game during the regular season, and No. 1 goalie Adin Hill likely has statistical correction ahead following an uncharacteristic start to the playoffs.
Of course, there’s also no guarantee Minny head coach John Hynes doesn’t go back to loading up his No. 1 line with Joel Eriksson Ek centering Kaprizov and Matt Boldy.
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Live NHL odds
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
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