The Toronto Maple Leafs started their three-game California trip with a dominating 6-2 win in Los Angeles Wednesday and now will look to make the San Jose Sharks their 13th win in 15 games.
Can the Leafs keep the league’s best form going? Can the Sharks build off of wins over the Senators and Hurricanes? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Sharks for Friday, November 25.
Maple Leafs vs Sharks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened with the visiting Maple Leafs at -155 on the ML and has moved to as high as -165. The Leafs closed at -160 on the ML vs. the Kings on Wednesday. Friday's total sits at 6 and is shaded heavily to the Under. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Sharks predictions
Predictions made on 11/25/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Sharks game info
• Location: SAP Center, San Jose, CA
• Date: Friday, November 26, 2021
• Puck drop: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SNO, NBCS-CA
Maple Leafs vs Sharks betting preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: David Kampf F (Questionable), Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Sharks: Jonathan Dahlen F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Sharks head-to-head record (since 2017)
Maple Leafs: 4-3 SU, 24 goals for.
Sharks: 3-4 SU, 22 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Leafs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Sharks.
Maple Leafs vs Sharks picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
Even over 3,000 km away, the Maple Leafs are still picking up victories. Toronto kicked off its California road trip with a convincing 6-2 win over the Kings Wednesday where the Buds scored five even-strength goals. With American Thanksgiving on Thursday, Toronto also gets the benefit of an extra day off as most teams play at least one back-to-back game when facing the three California teams. The Leafs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games which is the best mark in hockey since Oct 27. Toronto is showing very few weaknesses right now and is going to be a problem for the Sharks on Friday.
Throwing praise on the Buds is easy. Both special teams are in the top-10, the five-on-five goals are coming like expected, goalie Jack Campbell is 9-2 SU in his last 11 with a 1.36 GAA and a .956 save percentage, the bottom-six forwards are forming an identity and the young blueline talent is developing. So how do the Sharks match up versus this superior team?
Starting in net, Toronto could likely see a familiar face in former Leaf James Reimer. Reimer is 4-3 SU this month and has a 2.52 GAA this month compared to a 1.13 GAA in October. He’s allowed at least three goals in four of his last seven games and is cooling down after a hot start.
The Sharks sit in the bottom half of the league in 5-on-5 goals for and against and also in xgoals for and against so it’s safe to say what you see is what you get. That's good news for the Leafs who got their 5-on-5 game going on Wednesday as the Sharks have the best penalty kill in November, so scoring on the power play for Toronto might be an issue.
The Sharks are coming off back-to-back wins versus the Sens and Canes, but the Ottawa victory was anything but impressive as the heavy -180 favorites blew two leads and were tied 11 minutes into the third. San Jose is 6-9 SU in its last 15.
San Jose’s offensive success has been driven by its defense as three defenders sit in the top-six in team scoring. The Sharks rely heavily on the Couture-Meier-Balcers line and if Keefe can shut them down with the Matthews line or the Kampf line (if he is healthy), San Jose will struggle with secondary scoring.
Toronto closed at -160 on the ML versus the Kings who are on the same level as the Sharks, hence the line moving from -155 to -165 quickly. With the Leafs getting some 5-on-5 scoring going and the Sharks losing seven of their nine games by more than a goal, we’re hitting the Leafs on the puck line and taking them at -1.5.
Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under analysis
The entire hockey betting world was on the Leafs/Kings Under 5.5 Wednesday as we saw that Under go from -110 to -130. It featured the two hottest goalies in November and played out like most bets that seem like a lay-up: dead before the third period started.
It was only a matter of time before this Toronto offense got hot. They lead the league in 5-on-5 expected goals and the positive regression has begun. All four Toronto lines chipped in Wednesday and could continue their lamp-lighting against a San Jose team that is allowing over three goals per game this month.
Defensively, the Leafs could have a small problem as third-line center David Kampf exited Wednesday’s contest after taking a headshot and going down heavy and awkwardly. His possible absence hurts the team’s checking effort as he is the most defensive-minded skater of the forward group.
There is also a possibility that the Leafs give one of their remaining two California games to back-up goalie Joseph Woll who did have a shutout in his last game but also looked shaky in his one other start. He has just two NHL starts to his name. If Woll gets the nod, this total price will likely head north.
Even Though San Jose is 7-12 O/U on the season, it's not a dominant defensive team and struggles to keep goals out at even strength. The Sharks are scoring over three goals per game this month and allowing 3.29 goals per game over the last two weeks. Let’s hope the Leafs can carry that scoring momentum across the holiday and at 6 (+105), we're fine with a lean on the Over that may need an empty-netter to cash. This total could possibly fall to 5.5 so waiting may be better if you prefer the juiced 5.5 compared to the plus-money 6
Prediction: Over 6 (+105)
Best bet
The Leafs are the best team in hockey since October 27. They’re positively regressing to their expected goals and could get even better. With that said, a puck line play is always a little aggressive, especially with a 3-way ML usually available for -110 or better for a road team. Living or dying by the empty-net goal is a tough way to make a profit.
Don’t get us wrong, we like the Leafs a ton here as they face a bottom-15 defensive team with a goalie that is playing to his averages after a hot start, but the Leafs know how to win close games which makes them winning in regulation our best bet. We have no problem stacking out TOR bets and holding a pair of tickets: one ML in regulation and one -1.5 PL. This is the same price as the TOR vs. LAK game and finished as a one-sided win.
Pick: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (+100)
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