Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Nylander Keeps Heat on Bolts

It’s Game 3 at Amalie Arena tonight as the Toronto Maple Leafs will look to take a 2-1 series lead with a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning as -125 visiting favorites.

With the Bolts likely matching up with the Auston Matthews line, William Nylander can continue his success vs. Tampa Bay tonight as the second line will draw the much easier matchups vs. a thin Tampa blue line.

Find out where my best bets lie in my Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL picks and predictions for April 22.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 odds

Maple Leafs vs Lightning series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 22, 2023.

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 predictions

William Nylander has quietly dominated the Bolts over the last couple of seasons. During the regular season, the Maple Leafs winger had three goals and three assists over three meetings and he’s continued that success in the postseason with two goals and an assist through two games. With both teams still getting a ton of power-play opportunities, Nylander is very probable to contribute again tonight.

Nylander has a goal in four straight games and because of the one-sided scores in the postseason, he's played just over 15 minutes per game in the series. He should see closer to 19 minutes today, and with the Lightning getting the last change and likely matching up vs. the Auston Matthews line, that should leave Nylander and his line (John Tavares and Alex Kerfoot) with the much better matchups vs. a weak Tampa blue line.

I like both his anytime goal market at +150 (or better) and his Over 3.5 shots at +115. If bettors can get his Over 3.5 shots at +110 or better, I think that’s the smarter play. He’s topped that number in one of the two games this series, despite the limited minutes. With more time-on-ice projected and being the shooter on that second line, the Toronto offense should be driven by Nylander tonight.

When the Buds do get their extra-man opportunities, Nylander could easily find himself back on the first PP unit, but will still be the shooting threat when he plays on the second unit. 

In the five games vs. the Bolts this year, Nylander has six, eight, five, four, and two shots per game and averaging 23 shots/60. A 20-minute outing could stuff the boxscore at those rates.  

My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (+115 at SIA)

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 moneyline analysis

The Leafs closed as a -200 home favorite in Game 2 after opening at -160. The movement was based on the injuries to the Tampa blue line as Erik Cernak and Victor Hedman both sat — making a thin defense even more vulnerable.

As for tonight, Tampa head coach Jon Cooper has said Hedman will be a game-time decision again. He did make the morning skate, but Cernak looks more doubtful as he didn’t make the skate and is dealing with a head injury.

Toronto opened at -115, so the market has moved towards the visitors, and if Hedman were to sit, the Leafs would get shorter. So if you want the Bolts, likely waiting is the best move to get a longer price, and if you want the Leafs, the earlier the better.

The biggest edge Toronto has in this series is with its power play thanks to the injuries on the Tampa defense. Cernak led the team in penalty-kill time-on-ice/game during the regular season, while Hedman was on the PK around 30% of the time. Toronto took advantage of those absences in Game 2 by going 2-for-6 on the power play and 4-for-10 in the series.

In a game that's projected to be tight after a pair of blowouts, this could easily be the difference tonight. Both teams should get more power-play opportunities, as eight of the series’ 19 goals have been with the man advantage. PP goals are up 50% in the playoffs, compared to the regular season, and opportunities are up 21%.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a much better goalie at home, but the power-play opportunities should be a concern and cut into his ability to steal the game. Through five games vs. Tampa this season, the Leafs have scored 19 goals and the Tampa goalie has a .888 save percentage. In last year’s playoff, Vasilevskiy also allowed at least three goals in each of his three home games.  

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Over/Under analysis

The first two games of this series closed at 6, but today’s total sits at 6.5 after opening at 6 and continuously seeing money come in on the Over. 

Even with more power-play opportunities projected (which I think is driving the total move), the 6.5 is a little much — especially at -110. The series saw two blowouts, and it’s more probable that we see a closer game tonight. That could still be a 3-3 game after 60 minutes, but the adjustment from Game 2 to 3 on this total is the correct one and I don’t see a lot of value on the Over. I would likely lean on the Under at 6.5 at -105 or better but am off this total entirely.

The Leafs are running three lines of offense and keeping their scoring talent stretched out while also gaining some trust in that fourth line which will see some minutes tonight. Tampa isn't deep with scoring talent and will likely keep Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Nikita Kucherov together on the top line, while the bottom nine lacks scoring talent. When Corey Perry is leading your team in scoring at 13 minutes of ice time per game, you might be lacking scoring depth.

I’m not saying I don’t like goals tonight, but I think the total increase has put me off the Over in a series that has yet to see a close game entering this third and critical match.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting trend to know

The Lightning are 0-5 in their last five games following a loss of three or more goals. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Lightning.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 game info

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 injuries

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