Maple Leafs vs Kings Picks and Predictions: Bounce Back Buds?

The Toronto Maple Leafs will take their winning ways to California this week with a stop in Los Angeles Wednesday, where the Buds will look to get some revenge after the Kings snapped the Leafs’ five-game win streak back on November 8.

Can the Leafs run the gauntlet that is the California road trip, or will L.A. halt its current four-game losing skid? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Kings on Wednesday, November 24.

Maple Leafs vs Kings odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Toronto opened at -150 on the ML with a total of 5.5 leaning to the Over but have since moved to -160. Two weeks ago, Toronto closed at -255 on the ML when L.A. visited with the total reaching as high as 6.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Kings predictions

• Prediction: Leafs ML (-160)
• Prediction: Under 5.5 (-115)
• Best bet: Under 5.5 (-115)

Predictions made on 11/23/2021 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Kings game info

• Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Wednesday, November 24, 2021
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, TNT

Maple Leafs vs Kings betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Kings: Drew Doughty D (Out)
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Kings head-to-head record since 2017-18

Maple Leafs: 4-3, 19 goals for.
Kings: 3-4, 16 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Kings are 2-11 SU in their last 13 after scoring two goals or fewer in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Kings.

Maple Leafs vs Kings picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Maple Leafs have a comfortable road trip to California ahead of them. They last played on Sunday and face an L.A. team that has dropped four in a row and is coming off a 2-1 loss to the lowly Coyotes. 

The Leafs sit two points out of the top spot in the Eastern Conference as of Tuesday and have won 11 of 13 games. Goalie Jack Campbell has been the best goalie in the league and is No. 1 in GAA, save percentage, and goals saved above expected. Going back to his former club likely has him focused and after the Kings potted four against him two weeks ago, Campbell and the Leafs could come out flying.

Despite all the winning, this Leafs team can still get better. They sit 25th in goals per game but are first in expected goals. They have a negative 5-on-5 goal differential but are first in xgoal differential. They have the No. 7 power-play and the No. 3 penalty kill. The goals will come and when they do, we may look back on the Leafs at +1,000 to win the President’s Trophy as a bargain — compare that with +800 to win the Stanley Cup.

In their way Wednesday is a Kings squad that is without Drew Doughty and is 0-4 SU in their last four with losses to the Coyotes, Hurricanes, Capitals, and Jets. The Kings have scored two or fewer goals in four of their last five games and rode hot goalies during their seven-game winning streak. 

The L.A. power-play is 1 for its last 18 and the PK went 1 for 2 vs. Toronto in the last meeting. Goalie Jonathan Quick recorded the win in the last meeting but the American goalie has dropped two straight and has gotten just three goals of support over his last three starts. Toronto was coming off a big 5-2 win over the Bruins prior to losing to the Kings and were in a huge let-down spot.

Toronto closed the last meeting as -255 ML favorites. If we assume 20 cents for home ice and think the -255 line was legit, this line should be somewhere around -210. 

Prediction: Leafs ML (-160)

Over/Under analysis

Despite all the xgoal talk with the Leafs, this is still a team that sits 27th in goals per game and two spots behind the Kings. This lack of goal scoring has correlated to a pretty profitable Under record for the Leafs, who sit at 6-14 O/U on the year, which is the best in hockey and only one Under victory better than the Kings, who have the second-best Under record.

With the two best Under teams facing off Friday, getting a 5.5 at -115 to the Under is a great deal. 

The last game had a closing total of 5.5 and hit 6 at some books. The game finished 5-1 but an uncommon 4-1 empty-net goal was the difference between an Over and an Under. Both projected goaltenders have a sub-1.25 GAA this month, which is pretty incredible when you think about it.

Each team struggles to score at even strength and sits in the bottom half of the league in that department and combined, both teams are 5-15 O/U over their last 10 games. There are not many angles on this game to be hitting the Over. This price could be pretty expensive before puck drop.

Prediction: Under 5.5 (-115)

Best bet

We are making a play on both the Leafs ML (-160) and the Under 5.5 but feel getting this Under early is the best play. We’d expect the Leafs’ price to continue to trend downwards but if it gets too expensive, we can live with a Leafs 3-way ML. We can’t do that with the total, however, and this will be a no play for us if it reaches 5.5 -125 to the Under or worse. 

Some books have already passed -120 with some fringe books hitting -125 and -130. 

This is a battle between two teams who sit in the bottom-10 in scoring, have the best Under records in the league, have two of the best performing goalies in November, and take penalties at a bottom-four rate. The Under 5.5 is our best play. 

Pick: Under 5.5 (-115)

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