The Toronto Maple Leafs picked up a huge 5-1 win on Saturday and now head to Quebec for Game 3 versus the Montreal Canadiens with the series split 1-1.
After losing Game 1 — and its captain — in the series opener, Toronto found itself trailing 1-0 early in Game 2 but came back to score five unanswered times. Monday’s match is the first game of a back-to-back before the series returns to Toronto Thursday for Game 5.
Oddsmakers have Toronto as -160 NHL betting road favorites with the total opening at 5.5 and trending to the Under.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens Game 3 on Monday, May 24, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens game info
• Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC
• Date: Monday, May 24, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, SN, NHLN
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonAs of 4:15 p.m. ET, Toronto is a -167 favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, after opening at -148. Moneyline ticket count is just shy of 4/1 and moneyline cash just beyond 4/1 on the Maple Leafs. The total is stable at 5.5, with tickets and money both in the 2/1 range on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMaple Leafs vs Canadiens series odds
Maple Leafs: -225
Canadiens: +185
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens betting preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: John Tavares F (Out).
Canadiens: Jonathan Drouin F (Out), Jake Evans F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Canadiens are 1-6 SU in their last seven games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens.
Moneyline pick
The Leafs avoided disaster by picking up the 5-1 win Saturday night and creating a split in the series. The Leafs currently sit a -160 road favorite for Game 3 after closing as a -167 home favorite in Game 2. We aren’t getting much of a discount on a traveling Toronto team and there's a good reason for that.
With captain John Tavares out for at least two weeks, the Buds had to realign their forward groups, which proved successful on Saturday. Nick Foligno moved to center on the second line and went 13 for 16 in the faceoff dot while the third line of Kerfoot-Engvall-Mikheyev finished with a Fenwick For Percentage of 89 percent. Even the first line dominated with an 86.3 expected goals for percentage.
The biggest thing that came out of Game 2 was Toronto’s ability to score on Montreal goaltender Carey Price. Price had one of the best playoff performances of 2021 in Game 1 and if he had stymied the Leafs in Game 2, it could have turned ugly for the Maple Leafs' psyche.
But Toronto scored on four of its 33 shots and got some rebound chances off the Habs’ goalie. The Leafs finished the game with 5.43 expected goals, compared to Montreal’s 1.41.
Jack Campbell did his part once again and now the goalie with just two playoff games under his belt has stopped 50 of the 53 shots he’s seen. He again minimized quality chances, freezing a ton of pucks and allowing just one shot off of a rebound. Once again, Leafs fans are feeling much more confident in their goaltending.
The Habs may finally add Cole Caufield to the lineup after the rookie prospect has sat out the first two games. Montreal needs some scoring help as their top line of Anderson-Perry-Staal was invisible in Game 2 and finished with an expected goal percent of zero.
We like the value of the Habs and wouldn’t blame anyone for dipping on an NHL home team at +135, but this number would have to be north of +150 for us to think about it. That means we are taking the Buds, who answered many questions in Game 2.
PREDICTION: Toronto 3-way ML (+105)
Over/Under pick
The Canadiens pulled their goalie with five minutes left in the third period of a 4-1 hockey game. This is not the norm in management styles but if the Montreal coaching staff is going to do this for the remainder of the playoffs, we’ll be hard-pressed to hit an Under 5.5, especially at this price.
The Leafs finally got the power play on track which is great news for the Over. The Leafs finished Saturday 2 for 8 on the PP and had 2.59 expected goals. Rasmus Sandin has taken over the QB duties of the first PP unit and it paid off as he picked up his first NHL playoff goal.
Both teams’ power-play units could see more action Monday as Saturday’s game got a little chippy and Montreal’s Shea Weber was fined the maximum $5,000 for a cross-check. Both he and Pierre Engvall took 10-minute unsportsmanlike penalties at the end of the game and something could easily carry over into Game 3.
Price showed that he isn’t invincible Saturday, which goes a long way in the psychology of the game. Ultimately, the Leafs buried four goals past the netminder and now will take that scoring confidence into Montreal. Playing for their captain, who was stretchered off the ice in Game 1, is also a huge motivational factor.
If Toronto gets up and Montreal is willing to pull the goalie down three with lots of clock left, we have to take the Over at the friendly price of +100.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (+100)
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens betting card
- Toronto 3-way ML (+105)
- Over 5.5 (+100)
Picks made on 5/24/2021 at 6:32 a.m. ET
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