Golden Knights vs Avalanche Picks and Predictions: Which West Powerhouse Snaps Out of It?

To much dismay, Vegas and Colorado have both kind of stunk so far this season, but something will have to give when they clash tonight. Find out who's the better value with our Golden Knights vs Avalanche picks.

Oct 26, 2021 • 13:00 ET • 4 min read
Chandler Stephenson Vegas Golden Knights NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Both the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights have stumbled out of the gates to begin the season, but one team is skating away with a much-needed two points Tuesday night at Ball Arena.

The Avs (-172) and Golden Knights (+155) have seen a ton of each other over the last calendar year, with the Knights having won eight of the last 14 meetings, including a best-of-seven quarterfinal round in last year’s playoffs that they won 4-2. 

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Avalanche for Tuesday, October 26.

Golden Knights vs Avalanche odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Golden Knights vs Avalanche picks

Picks made on 10/26/2021 at 12:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Golden Knights vs Avalanche game info

Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date: Tuesday, October 26, 2021
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Golden Knights vs Avalanche betting preview

Injuries

Golden Knights: Alex Tuch F (Out), Mark Stone F (Out), Nolan Patrick F (Questionable), Alec Martinez D (Questionable), Max Pacioretty F (Out), Zach Whitecloud D (Out).

Avalanche: Devon Toews D (Out), Samuel Girard D (Questionable), Pavel Francouz G (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Golden Knights vs Avalanche head-to-head record (2020-21)

Golden Knights: 8-6, 40 goals for.
Avalanche: 6-8, 35 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 10-1-1 in Avalanche’s last 12 vs. the Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Avalanche.

Golden Knights vs Avalanche picks and predictions

Combined, two of last year’s best teams have begun the season 3-7 SU. The Avalanche have just one win in regulation this season, and that was against the dreadful Blackhawks, while the injured Knights just got swept in a three-game homestand where they were outscored 10-4. There isn’t a ton of confidence in betting either of these teams, but the one thing that does stand out is the price.

Vegas has not been a +155 or higher underdog to any team other than Colorado in the last two seasons. Looking ahead at the schedule, it could also be the best price we get them all year unless goalie Robin Lehner goes down. They haven’t been higher than -125 on the ML this year and won as +160 dogs in Colorado back on March 27. Vegas has taken two of the last four in Colorado, with three of those games being decided by overtime.

The injuries to the Golden Knights are obviously the big reason behind the price, as Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and two defensemen are down. They played the hottest goalie in Ilya Sorokin on Sunday, falling 2-0, but had a ton of chances and finished with more expected goals. Hitting the road may be good for this club, which dropped all three games of its previous homestand. 

With the losses upfront, the Knights aren’t rolling four confident lines, but a top line of Marchessault-Karlsson-Smith and another underappreciated line of Dadonov-Roy-Kolesar is still a great defensive top two lines. This team knows how to match up well against the Avs and has won four straight games against them in the playoffs to advance to the semifinals.

Special teams give no real advantage to either team. Both clubs have bottom-15 penalty-killing units, while the Knights and Avs have two of the worst power plays in all of hockey. Sure Vegas is 0 for 11 to begin the season with the man advantage, but Colorado isn’t far behind at 2 for 20. 

The Avalanche are giving up 4.0 goals per game, as life without Philipp Grubauer hasn’t been great. Newcomer Darcy Kuemper has a 3.51 GAA across four starts. He’s allowed at least three goals in three of his four starts and is facing an average of 34.4 shots per game, which is way up from last season’s league-leading 26.1.

Colorado is also dealing with injuries as defenseman Devon Toews has yet to suit up this season, while D Samuel Girard and his 20 minutes per game are questionable.

With neither team playing with much confidence, we’re taking the +155 and think the Knights have a better than 39 percent probable chance to win this game. 

The Over is a combined 6-3-1 with these clubs and 5-5 O/U in the last 10 meetings. Tuesday’s game features a total of 6, which is unusual, as nine of the last 10 matchups closed at 5.5. So what's different this year?

Well for starters, both clubs have been getting poor goaltending to open the season. The Avalanche and Knights sit in 29th and 27th, respectively, in goals allowed per game this year while both PKs sit in the bottom half of the league. Lehner has a 3.28 GAA in five starts while Kuemper owns a 3.51 GAA. Both tendies have near-negative goals saved above expected/60.

Neither offense has really gotten going in 2021, as the Avs have scored just 14 goals in five games while the Knights have potted just 10 in their five. Perhaps one of the best rivalries in the Western Conference will change that up as both teams will look to break out of their slumps versus a pair of generous and injured teams with struggling goalies. 

The McKinnon-Rantanen-Landeskog line has three goals in the last two games and Nathan MacKinnon has five points in his three games. His line has also surrendered four goals over the last three matches. 

Both teams can hit that three-goal mark, which is critical in hitting Overs above 5.5. We don’t trust either goalie, and both teams’ PKs have been terrible to start the year.  

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