Flyers vs Lightning Picks and Predictions: Philly Avoids Blowout in Tampa

Philadelphia hits the road and heads to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning Tuesday night. With Tampa's inconsistencies on offense and the Flyers playing sound defensive hockey, our NHL betting picks see the Flyers keeping things closer than expected.

Oct 18, 2022 • 08:35 ET • 4 min read
Travis Konecny Carter Hart Philadelphia Flyers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It looks like John Tortorella has lit a fire under the Philadelphia Flyers' ass, as the team that scrounged 25 wins last season is 2-0 to start the year. New Jersey and Vancouver are definitely no slouches, but Philadelphia will get a true test when it heads south to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight.

Tampa hasn't gotten off to the best of starts through three games, but will this game serve as a get-right spot for the Bolts? Find out all my thoughts on this Eastern Conference battle between the Flyers vs. Lightning in my NHL betting picks and predictions.

Flyers vs Lightning best odds

Flyers vs Lightning picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Flyers are undefeated. That was definitely just as weird for you to read as it was for me to type it even if it has only been two games. Carter Hart has looked like the stud between the pipes we all thought he was going to be, stopping 63 of 67 shots he's faced, good for a .940 SV%.

The offense that finished 31st in the league last season has also gotten off to a fiery start led by right winger Travis Konecny (three goals, one assist).

Will the Flyers be a playoff team? Absolutely not. But this isn't a roster full of young players who just want to roll over and die without a fight. We saw that last game when Philly fell down 2-0 early to the Canucks and came back to win 3-2.

Veterans such as Kevin Hayes, James Van Riemsdyk, Cam Atkinson, and others will still look to put their best efforts in every night, especially under Torts. Skillwise, this team hasn't improved, but there is definitely a culture reshaping underway.

On the other side of this team lies a Tampa squad that has one win in its first three games and is coming off a spanking at the hands of the Penguins — albeit with Brian Elliott in net. 

On paper, the Bolts are by far the better team on both ends of the ice. However, aside from the five-goal outburst against Columbus, this offense has struggled to put the puck in the net. They scored just one against the Rangers to start the season and only got two past Tristan Jarry Saturday night.

Philly has shown promise on the defensive end of the ice with Tony DeAngelo making his presence felt early, along with Hart looking confident between the pipes. These trends won't continue all season long. Tampa has too much firepower to not break through offensively and well, Philadelphia's defensive corps is god-awful. But, these are also trends that we can't assume will change overnight.

Tampa Bay will more than likely walk away with two points when the horns sound, but the Flyers have the on-ice ability to put up a fight. Their -84 goal differential last season left a sour taste in the mouths of fans and skaters alike, and although they won't be able to keep up all season, they should be able to keep things interesting tonight.

When the dust settles on the regular season, the Bolts will be prepping for the playoffs while Philly books tee times, but for this matchup, the Flyers will keep Tampa on its toes for 60 minutes.

My best bet: Flyers +1.5 (-112 at Pinnacle)

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Flyers vs Lightning moneyline analysis

Philadelphia heads to Tampa Bay as an undefeated team unexpectedly while Tampa is trying to regroup after a smacking at the hands of Pittsburgh. It is still very early in the season, and these teams' records should not indicate who will win this matchup. Tampa is as high as -275 favorites and for good reason.

After getting the night off Saturday, Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to be back between the pipes for the Bolts Tuesday, which is a significant upgrade from Elliott. Meanwhile, Hart is expected to make his third straight start after having two impressive outings.

On paper, Tampa Bay has the better offense, but it has struggled to score outside of its game against Columbus. With how well Hart has played to start the year, it's hard to see the Lightning blow Philadelphia out. With that said, I would still lean towards the Bolts to come out of this game with a W — although the -275 is too steep.

Flyers vs Lightning Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 6.0 and has stayed at that number. Vasilevskiy is still the greatest goalie in the world and betting on the Over in any games he plays in is a sweat-fest. Tampa's offense soured Vasy's 36-save performance against New York, hiding just how good he still is.

Meanwhile, Hart has looked confident to start the season with a team in front of him that looks motivated to keep the haters quiet. Both netminders have what it takes to stand on their heads, making me lean a little towards the Under. Tampa is still looking weird on offense and Philadelphia followed up its five-goal performance against New Jersey with three tallies against Demko.

Vasilevskiy is better than both goalies the Flyers have faced this season and I can't see them lighting him up. The only thing that would push this game close to the Over would be if Tampa's offense exploded, which is very possible, so I'll just keep the money in the account and stay away from the total.

Flyers vs Lightning betting trend to know

The favorite is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs Lightning.

Flyers vs Lightning game info

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Date: Tuesday, October 18, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Flyers vs Lightning key injuries

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