The Montreal Canadiens have taken a very different path to the Eastern Conference Final than the Carolina Hurricanes, but they arrive with real reasons for optimism despite being sizable underdogs.
From clutch-game resilience and overtime poise, to a perfect response record after losses, this group has consistently found ways to rebound.
Add in strong coaching, steady identity, and playoff composure, and Montreal has legitimate belief heading into Round 3 despite being underdogs in the NHL odds.
Why Habs fans should have hope
- Time for Suzuki/Caufield to show up?
- Dobes continues to stand tall
- Rest vs. Rust
- ECF is the Canes' kryptonite
- Not your average group of kids
Five reasons Canadiens fans should be optimistic
The top line hasn’t even shown up yet at 5-on-5
The Montreal Canadiens have eight wins in the postseason, and of the team’s 27 even-strength goals, only one has come off the sticks of Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky.
That top line, alongside Nick Suzuki, accounted for 72 total even-strength goals during the regular season, or 37% of all the team’s goals at even strength. It’s not as if Caufield and Slafkovsky have done nothing, though, as they’ve still contributed seven of the Habs’ 13 power-play goals through 14 playoff games.
This team is getting scoring from its middle six, but the offense still hasn’t played its best postseason hockey. Everything on that top line runs through Suzuki, who is still sitting at +3000 to win the Conn Smythe.
With how heavily head coach Martin St. Louis is leaning on his center, leading this series in points at +350, the betting favorite makes sense.
Canadiens odds to lead ECF in points
Jakub Dobes
The goalie landscape in the NHL has changed. Gone are the days of riding your No. 1 for 70% of the season. All four starting goalies in the Conference Final were not their team’s No. 1 option early in the year.
Jakub Dobes has gone on an incredible run ever since Montreal changed goalie coaches on January 28 and brought in Marco Marciano. The rookie netminder closed the regular season at 13-5-1 with a 2.57 GAA and a .914 SV%, a notable jump from his earlier marks of a 2.96 GAA and .890 SV% before the change.
His 0.776 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes trails only three playoff goaltenders with at least three games played.
The eerie part is Montreal’s history with rookie goalies making playoff magic. Some guy named Patrick Roy won the Cup in his rookie season back in 1985-86, going 15-5 with a .923 SV%. He wasn’t even the first to do it.
Ken Dryden led the Habs to a Cup in 1970-71 after appearing in just six regular-season games. Dryden played in two Game 7s across three playoff series that year, with Montreal playing in 20 of a possible 21 playoff games. Sound familiar?
Both Roy and Dryden walked away with the Conn Smythe in their Cup-winning rookie runs. Dobes enters the Eastern Conference Final at +1900 to win the Conn Smythe, and Martin St. Louis appears ready to ride him the rest of the way.
Rest vs. Rust
I hate this term more than anything, but you might never see a more classic “rest vs. rust” ECF setup. One team is coming off back-to-back Game 7 wins, while its Round 3 opponent rolled in at a perfect 8-0 SU. It’s the longest break between playoff series since 1919.
The Carolina Hurricanes haven’t played a game since May 9 — an 11-day layoff — while the Canadiens at least get a chance to catch their breath after taking Game 7 in Buffalo on Monday.
Teams coming off a Game 7 win and facing a team coming off a sweep are 8-1 SU in all series since 2000.
Montreal is +250 to win the series at BET99, the best available price.
Hurricanes
Freddy, the Bod, and the Canes’ semifinal track record
Things in the Eastern Conference Final have not been good for anyone associated with the Hurricanes since the days of Ron Francis. You could say this team has metaphorically pissed all over themselves when they are eight wins away from the Cup.
We have seen this early-playoff form from Frederik Andersen before. Just last year, he entered the ECF with elite numbers, much like this season, and fell flat, posting sub-.840 SV% numbers over four games before getting pulled.
He is 4-10 SU in the third round over his career.
Head coach Rod Brind'Amour may be running out of runway if he can’t break through this stage. Since taking over in Carolina, he's 0-3 in Round 3 across seven postseason appearances, and an even more concerning 1-12 SU in those series combined, despite going 24-8 SU through the first two rounds.
Don’t read too much into Carolina’s 8-0 SU start, as their path to this point has come against noticeably softer competition than the Canadiens have faced. The Canes are not walking all over their third straight opponent.
Odds for which game the Canadiens will win the series in
Youth that's been tested under pressure
That Canadiens might be one of the youngest teams in the NHL, but this is a group that has handled every situation this season. They don’t panic down multiple goals late, they can win in overtime, and they have shown an ability to respond immediately after poor performances.
There’s a reason they are 5-0 SU this playoffs following a loss.
This might be one of the best-coached teams in hockey, and it’s a shame St. Louis didn’t receive more Coach of the Year attention.
There’s a reason this group has been labeled the “Cardiac Kids,” and it’s because adversity doesn’t seem to affect them — something the playoffs have made very clear.
