The Toronto Maple Leafs believe they aren’t the same team as seasons past. Monday night they will get a chance to prove it as they try for a third time to eliminate the Montreal Canadiens in Game 7 at Scotiabank Arena.
The Habs have fended off back-to-back elimination games thanks to a pair of OT victories in Games 5 and 6. Now Montreal has all the momentum heading into the final game of the series while Toronto is left asking itself how it got into this situation after leading the series 3-1.
Oddsmakers have Toronto as a heavy NHL betting favorite with the total opening at 5.5 tilted to the Under.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs for Monday, May 31, with puck drop at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Monday, May 31, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, SN, NBC
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe action at DraftKings Sportsbook is coming in on the home favorites, as the -200 Maple Leafs are taking 71 percent of moneyline bets and 63 percent of the handle ahead of their Game 7 clash against the +170 Canadiens. It's been split action on the total of 5.5, with 47 percent of bets on the Over, though 67 percent of the handle is on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCanadiens vs Maple Leafs series odds
Canadiens: +187
Maple Leafs: -204
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Canadiens: Jon Merrill D (Out), Jonathan Drouin F (Out), Jake Evans F (Questionable), Tomas Tatar F (Questionable), Artturi Lehkonen F (Questionable).
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Questionable), John Tavares F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The road team is 4-2 SU in the series. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.
Moneyline pick
The Leafs are still waiting for their first trip to the second round in 17 years. This is an organization that has crushed the fanbase’s soul over the last decade with monumental collapses and with the Leafs possibly blowing a 3-1 series lead, it has fans thinking: not again.
In 2013, the Leafs lost Game 7 in overtime to the Bruins after leading 4-1 with 10 minutes left in the third period. Since then it has been disappointment after disappointment for the Leafs in the playoffs, who are 0-7 SU since 2013 in games where they can eliminate their opponent. Montreal showed in Game 6 that they can dictate the pace of play and there is no way that this Montreal team, backed by Carey Price, should be +180.
We’ve been on the Leafs for the majority of the series as they are the better team. But the NHL playoffs are a different animal and with the Leafs’ top line playing hide-and-seek as Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have combined for just one goal through six games, Montreal certainly has more than a 32 percent win probability as the odds dictate.
The Canadiens have played a smart game since Game 4 despite allowing Toronto to force OT in Games 5 and 6. Defensively they have allowed very few odd-man rushes and have used their speed in the transition game to gain multiple odd-man rushes for themselves. The Habs’ offense is just waiting in the weeds for Toronto to make a terrible error and the Leafs have been more than accommodating.
Carey Price’s play has allowed the Canadiens to stick around throughout games. Price is saving nearly one full goal more than expected per 60 minutes and has a high-danger save percentage of .810, which is the third-best in the playoffs — the reason Matthews and Marner have just a single goal is Price.
The Canadiens have not been pouring in the goals this series but with speed up and down the lineup, they are a threat to break out on most shifts. The Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki bromance has become legit with both skaters looking like the most dangerous Montreal skaters on the ice since Game 3.
The Montreal ML price is too good to pass up. If you asked Leafs fans their amount of confidence in their team heading into Monday’s Game 7, it wouldn’t be -204 or 67 percent implied probability. Montreal is playing with house money at this point and has less to lose than Toronto.
PREDICTION: Montreal (+180)
Over/Under pick
Since Game 5, the Leafs’ offense has only come alive once it has trailed by two or more goals. It’s been unable to beat Price early but has had plenty of chances. The fact that the Leafs are still in this series when their top line has managed just one goal and is shooting just 1.7 percent is a testament to the scoring depth Toronto has.
With Nick Foligno drawing back into the lineup, it gives the Buds four solid lines that can create — now they just have to finish. How they start will be a big factor as the Habs dominated the pace of play early in the first period of Game 6. Toronto will have to come out of the blocks ready to play when the puck drops in Game 7 and that is something the players are well aware of.
Jack Campbell has supplied the Leafs with some competent goaltending but looked a little shakier in Game 6 than earlier in the series. Campbell isn’t controlling his rebounds as well, which is keeping plays alive for the Canadiens' offense.
Montreal has scored some scrambling goals where Campbell looked to be swimming in his crease and, of course, the Toronto turnovers have also aided in the Canadiens’ output. The Leafs’ defense had a total of 13 giveaways in Game 6.
Both teams will get their chances as Game 6 finished with over six expected goals scored. With both teams’ seasons on the line, teams will be willing to take bigger risks late in the game if trailing. At +115 for an Over of 5.5 in an elimination game, we’re all in.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (+115)
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting card
- Montreal ML (+180)
- Over 5.5 (+115)
Picks made on 5/31/2021 at 4:40 a.m. ET
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