The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to wrap up their series with the Montreal Canadiens Thursday night as they lead their North Division rivals three games to one.
The Leafs have not advanced to the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs in 17 years but are in great shape to do so after winning three straight and outscoring Montreal 11-2 since Game 2.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs for Thursday, May 27.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, May 27, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, SN, NBCSN
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonOddsmakers have Toronto as a hefty -244 favorite with the total opening at 5.5 and looking to hit 5. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameCanadiens vs Maple Leafs series odds
Canadiens: +1,600
Maple Leafs: -5,000
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Canadiens: John Tavares F (out), Nick Foligno F (questionable).
Maple Leafs: Jonathan Drouin F (out), Jake Evans F (questionable), Artturi Lehkonen F (questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Canadiens are 1-8 SU in their last nine games, including the regular season. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.
Team total pick
The Maple Leafs have rallied around the loss of their captain in Game 1 and are now one win away from a date with the Winnipeg Jets for the North Division Finals. There was a time when Toronto fans wouldn’t be comfortable with a 3-1 series lead, but with the Leafs sitting at -5,000 to win the series and holding the Habs to just two goals over the last 180 minutes of hockey, fans are humming a different tune than seasons past.
Toronto is coming off a 4-0 blanking of the Canadiens in Game 4, which was the backend of a back-to-back. Montreal had more chances and won the Corsi/Fenwick battle, but its inability to score has plagued it all series long. The Habs are 0-for-13 on the power play — one of only two playoff teams to not score a PP goal — and have scored just four goals on 114 shots, good for a 3.5 shooting percentage (league average is around 10 percent).
In a series that had many talking about Carey Price possibly tilting the series, it has been Toronto’s playoff newcomer, Jack Campbell, that has stolen the show. Through four games, the Leafs’ tender has the playoffs’ best save percentage (.965), leads all goalies in puck freezes above expected and has given the team a sense of calmness on the backend.
The Leafs lost two of their second-line skaters, but with the team’s great depth, they’ve plugged those holes and the Galchenyuk-Kerfoot-Nylander line totaled seven points between the three of them in Game 4. Add in a first line that has the two best players on a line not named Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid plus a shut-down third line and this Leafs’ forward group has established an identity and has guys playing their roles.
The -244 line is the biggest Toronto has been in series and the 3-way ML is also steep at -141. Perusing through the markets the -1 (2-way) Toronto ML is likely the best way to go but this market isn’t offered everywhere. And be careful trying to find the best market as Asian handicaps are usually settled in regulation — including totals. Instead of getting cute, we’re going to hit the team total of Over 3.5, because if the Leafs are leading in the third, Montreal will likely pull the goalie early and often late in the frame with its season on the line. We like the Leafs to win, but hate taking -1.5 pucklines in the playoffs. If Toronto scores four goals, it's likely a victory.
PREDICTION: Toronto team total Over 3.5 (+100)
Over/Under pick
The Over has hit just once in the series with that 5-1 Game 2 needing nearly five minutes of empty-net action to cash. With the combination of great goaltending and Montreal’s lack of scoring, hitting the Over would require more luck than usual.
We noted above that the Habs just can’t score. Their leading scorer has just two points and only nine skaters have collected a single point. Going 0 for 13 on the power play is going to sting over the offseason for the Canadiens but the truth is, this Montreal team just lacks scoring talent and Toronto is proving that. Over the last month of the season, Montreal scored at least three regulation goals just six times in its final 24 games.
Both goalies are sporting goals saved above expected/60 above 1.00, as even in defeat, Carey Price has been great. He has a .956 save percentage on unblocked shot attempts and sits fourth in the playoffs in WAR among all goalies, per MoneyPuck.
Toronto has developed a shut-down group as the Peter Engvall line has been keeping the Habs from even generating any pressure. In the 4-0 win on Tuesday, they led the team in xgoal percentage and did so with the team’s lowest on-ice xgoals against but also led the team in on-ice expected xgoals for. They were held pointless, but the lack of time they are spending in their defensive zone is turning them into one of the more responsible lines on the team.
It’s tough to back the Over when one of the teams has just three goals at 5-on-5 through four games and the team leading the series has done so with great goaltending and attention to defensive responsibilities. Let’s go back to the well on the total, even with the juice and an elimination game.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-132)
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting card
- Toronto team total Over 3.5 (+100)
- Under 5.5 (-132)
Picks made on 5/27/2021 at 5:00 a.m. ET
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