Bruins vs Islanders Game 6 Picks and Predictions: Backing Bruins is a Shaky Proposition

The Bruins are crying foul, but they're also facing elimination with their star goalie under the weather. NHL betting value is great for the home side — find out why the Isles make a great bet in our Bruins vs. Islanders picks and predictions.

Posted: Jun 9, 2021 11:45 AM ET Updated: Jun 9, 2021 2:55 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Bruins vs Islanders Game 6 Picks and Predictions: Backing Bruins is a Shaky Proposition
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Islanders will have a chance to wrap up their series against the Boston Bruins Wednesday. The Islanders have taken three of the last four against Boston and have their opponents looking for excuses.

Game 5 saw New York score three separate power-play goals, which have Boston coach Bruce Cassidy and the fanbase salty. But the Bruins are one road loss away from the end of their season and their goalie is potentially less than full-strength heading into Game 6’s elimination match. 

Here are our free picks and predictions for Boston Bruins vs New York Islanders for Wednesday, June 9.

(Editor's Note: This preview was published prior to Wednesday afternoon's news that Boston G Tuukka Rask will be starting in Game 6.)

Bruins vs Islanders game info

Location: Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Long Island, NY
Date: Wednesday, June 9, 2021
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBC, Sportsnet, NCBSN, TVAS

Bruins vs Islanders odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

In tonight's lone NHL playoff matchup, TwinSpires Sportsbook pegged Boston a -139 Game 6 favorite at the outset, dropped to -129, then rebounded to -141, where the moneyline stands at 2:45 p.m. ET. The Islanders, who can clinch the series with a win, are taking 58 percent of tickets, while the backs-against-the-wall Bruins are seeing 54 percent of money. "Great two-way action," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total opened at 5 (Over -125), and that price stretched to Over -141, with ticket count 4/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Bruins vs Islanders series odds

Bruins: -200
Islanders: +170

Bruins vs Islanders betting preview

Injuries

Bruins: Brandon Carlo D (out), Curtis Lazar F (out), Kevan Miller D (out)
Islanders: Anders Lee F (out)
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Islanders are 6-0 in their last six games playing on one day of rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Islanders.

Moneyline pick

The Bruins were -625 favorites to win the series back before Game 4, but back-to-back wins by Barry Trotz’s team have the boys from Beantown one loss away from elimination. The books have favored the Bruins all series as the Islanders won as +175 road dogs in Boston on Monday. Game 6’s +110 odds are the lowest that New York has had all series.

The Islanders lost 2-1 in overtime at home in Game 3, but won 4-1 at Nassau in Game 4. Through five playoff home games, New York is averaging 3.60 goals per game with 2.6 of those coming at even strength. However, it hasn’t been the Islanders' 5-on-5 play that has been the talk of the series.

Boston coach Bruce Cassidy was fined $25,000 for criticizing the officials after Game 5’s 5-4 loss. The Bruins’ bench boss also hinted that the officiating has benefitted his opponents for the entirety of the series. It may have had something to do with the Islanders going 3 for 4 on the PP, but complaining about calls isn’t going to help the cause in Game 6. 

The Bruins outplayed their opponent on Monday, but still picked up the loss and got starting goalie Tuukka Rask pulled after two periods. Cassidy said the move was due to Rask not feeling 100 percent and that he isn’t ready to commit to the veteran in Game 6. If Rask is healthy, he will go. Boston’s backup is rookie Jeremy Swayman, who looked sharp in his limited action this season, but has just 10 NHL games to his name.

The Islanders found a way to net five goals with just 1.26 xgoals recorded in Game 5. The loss could be a tough one for the Bruins to bounce back from, as simulations show Boston winning that game 68.3 percent of the time, per MoneyPuck. Now hanging on by a thread, the Bruins have to win in a packed Nassau Coliseum (12k fans), where the home side has amassed 7.37 xgoals in two games this series compared to Boston’s 5.94. If they have to turn to Swayman it could be a devastating blow to the locker room. 

The Islanders even gave up the first goal again on Monday, but still found a way to fight back in front of 17,000 fans at TD Garden. Boston has scored the game’s first goal in four straight games but has just one OT win to show for it. The No. 3 seed is playing anything but disciplined hockey at the moment, and New York has shown multiple ways they can pull off a win. 

We’re expecting another close, physical battle between two teams that really don’t like each other, but with the Islanders’ power play rolling, the Bruins taking dumb penalties and New York’s ability to stay in any game, we’re banging the home team for plus money.

If Rask sits, this line could swing the other way. If you like the Islanders, take them earlier than later.

PREDICTION: New York ML +110

Over/Under pick

Despite seeing plenty of 5 totals, this Boston/New York series is 3-1-1 O/U. Yes, Game 4’s push was as lucky as it gets, with three goals in the game's final seven minutes, including two empty-netters, but it just goes to show you how difficult it is to hit an Under 5.

Rask looked anything but a former Vezina goalie in Game 5, allowing four goals on just 16 shots. The Boston starter saw only two high-danger shots but allowed one low-danger, two medium-danger and one high-danger goal. He finished with -1.96 goals saved above expected.

New York’s Semyon Varlamov gave up four goals of his own but also had to face 44 shots and 61 unblocked shot attempts in Game 5. Varlamov also surrendered another early goal in the first period, which was his fourth pre-10-minute tally in his six playoff starts. The Islanders' goalie is the only remaining starting netminder in the playoffs to own a negative goals saved above expected/60.

Power play goals have been common and plentiful so far in this Round 2 series. 11 of the 31 goals scored have been with the man advantage, while both teams have struggled on the PK. In total, both clubs' PP is 11 for 34 (32 percent) this series and we could be seeing more man advantages on Wednesday after Cassidy’s complaints.

Game 5 closed with a total of 5 at -110. We aren’t getting that price on Wednesday after a nine-goal game on Monday, but at -138 for the Over 5, we can still get behind it. If Rask can’t go, this total will likely close at 5.5.

PREDICTION: Over 5 (-138)

Bruins vs Islanders betting card

  • New York ML +115
  • Over 5 (-138)

Picks made on 6/8/2021 at 11:45 p.m. ET

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