Avalanche vs Golden Knights Game 6 Picks and Predictions: Brink of Elimination

The Under has cashed in three of the last four games of this Avalanche vs. Golden Knights series. Colorado will need Philipp Grubauer at his best for this elimination Game 6, as Vegas, behind Marc-Andre Fleury, is 4-1 in its last five home playoff games.

Posted: Jun 10, 2021 11:19 AM ET Updated: Jun 10, 2021 6:00 PM ET Est Time: 5 min
Avalanche vs Golden Knights Game 6 Picks and Predictions: Brink of Elimination
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Colorado Avalanche had a 2-0 series lead over the Vegas Golden Knights but now find themselves on the brink of elimination heading into Game 6 in the desert.

The Golden Knights return home to T-Mobile Arena in front of a packed house as they look to eliminate the visiting Avalanche and win their fourth straight game in the Round 2 series. Vegas opened as -135 home favorites with a total of 5.5 that's trending to the Under.

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Avalanche vs. Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday, June 10.

Avalanche vs Golden Knights game info

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Thursday, June 10, 2021
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

Avalanche vs Golden Knights odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

Game 6 opened with Vegas a -121 favorite late Tuesday night at DraftKings, and the moneyline stretched to Vegas -139 by midmorning Wednesday. As of 6 p.m. ET Thursday, the Golden Knights are -134 on two-way action leaning toward the Avalanche, who are taking 56 percent of tickets and 52 percent of cash. The total is at 5.5 (Under -124), with 69 percent of tickets/76 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Avalanche vs Golden Knights series odds

Avalanche: +270
Golden Knights: -345

Avalanche vs Golden Knights betting preview


Avalanche: Nazem Kadri F (Out).
Golden Knights: Peyton Krebs F (Out), Tomas Nosek F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 11-4-1 in the Golden Knights’ last 16 playoff games as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Golden Knights.

Moneyline pick

The Avalanche held a two-goal lead heading into the final period of Tuesday night's Game 5. The home team was 20 minutes away from leading the series 3-2, but two Vegas goals off Avalanche turnovers drew the score even just five minutes into the third period. Mark Stone potted the OT winner early into the extra frame as the Avs picked a terrible time to lose their first home game in 14 matches.

Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury gave up his weakest goal of the playoffs late in the first period but settled down afterward. The second goal wasn’t his fault and he made some timely saves to allow his team to mount the comeback. After three straight games of leading the offensive attack, the Golden Knights lost the Corsi/Fenwick and xgoals battles but Fleury was there to bail out the Knights. MAF is 3-1 SU in his four starts in this series as backup Robin Lehner took the loss in Game 1’s 7-1 defeat.

Vegas’ speed and transition game were on full display on Tuesday, as all three Vegas goals came off of turnovers that the Golden Knights turned up ice and buried. Vegas gave up more quality chances but is making the most of its good opportunities of late as the Knights have scored seven high-danger goals in 40 attempts (17.5 shooting percent) over the last three games. 

Colorado has struggled to capitalize on its best chances and has just two high-danger goals in 25 attempts since Game 3. Nathan MacKinnon has zero points in the Knights’ three straight wins to go along with a minus-three rating. The former Conn Smythe favorite has been shut down by Peter DeBoer’s group, which has made great adjustments after Game 2. If Nate Mac can’t get going, it doesn’t bode well for the Avs.

Since trailing the series 2-0, the Knights had dominated the play on the ice in Games 3 and 4 but found a way to pick up the critical victory in Game 5 despite getting outshot 25 to 30 and outchanced 29 to 15. Now the division’s No. 2 seed is finding ways to win without its best performance.

Having 18,000 fans at T-Mobile Arena in a series-clinching game on Thursday is a huge boost as the Golden Knights are 4-1 SU in their last five home playoff games and have outscored their opponents 19 to 10. This is the Avalanche’s first test of adversity in these playoffs and they don’t look up to the challenge.

PREDICTION: Vegas (-135)

Over/Under pick

Goals haven’t come easy in this series as the Under is 3-1 since Game 2. The scoring has been lopsided in each game as neither match has seen both teams combine for three or more goals each. When the series is showcasing two 2021 Vezina nominated goalies, it doesn’t matter how good the offense is.

Fleury leads all playoff goalies in saves on unblocked shots at .965 percent, per MoneyPuck, and also paces all netminders with a 1.81 GAA. MAF has also allowed more than two goals in just one of his last five starts. The Vegas goalie has the best shot-blocking team in front of him, with the Knights leading all playoff teams with a 26.4 percent blocked-shot percentage. 

Opposing him is Colorado’s Philipp Grubauer. The Avs’ tender is coming off a game where he blanked the Knights over the first 40 minutes but got hung out to dry by some costly turnovers later in the game. Grubauer has yet to lose three games in a row this year and has a 2.33 GAA in the playoffs.

The Knights have made a great adjustment to the Colorado power play that was doing what it wanted earlier in the series. The Avs had just one power-play opportunity in Game 5 and are 0 for 4 with the man advantage over the last two games. Vegas has done a great job of staying out of the box and playing disciplined hockey and is averaging less than three penalties taken since Game 2.

Vegas has struggled to get anything going on the PP itself, as it owns a 14.6 percent success rate on the power play which ranks third last out of all 16 playoff teams. Colorado is taking even fewer penalties than Vegas at 2.72 per match as special team goals have not been a factor late in this series.

For a series that has been profitable to the Under, we’re still getting some of the best prices in the playoffs on the Under. Thursday’s total opened at 5.5 at -120 for the Under but has since hit as high as -112 on some reputable books. 

PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-112)

Avalanche vs Golden Knights betting card

  • Vegas (-135)
  • Under 5.5 (-112)

Picks made on 6/10/2021 at 10:40 a.m. ET

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