NFL Week 9 Bet Now, Bet Later: Tua's Dolphins Keep Scoring at Will

Jason Logan's Bet Now, Bet Later column has reached the halfway mark of the NFL season. He's looking at a shootout between the Dolphins and Bears that will see its total rise quickly after Tua Tagovailoa and Miami's high-octane offense torched the Lions.

Oct 30, 2022 • 22:20 ET • 4 min read
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins NFL
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We’ve reached the midway mark of the NFL season. Take a look at your bankroll. How’s it doing?

If your stack is even a little fatter than it was back in Week 1 — great work! You must be getting the best of the number more often than not when it comes to betting on the weekly NFL odds.

But if your bankroll is shriveled and dying like a jack-o-lantern on November 1, there’s some fine-tuning you can do with your bets — like recognizing the best times of the week to wager in order to support your opinion with a spread or total that does it justice. 

I help you do just that, showcasing a few NFL Week 9 odds to bet now and spreads and total to bet later.

Week 9 bet now, bet later picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Let’s not overthink this shit. 

The Eagles are the best team in the NFC and bring their dynamic offense to Houston for Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia is THE rushing team in the NFL, boasting a league-best success rate and the No. 3 EPA per handoff in the land. And when Philly isn’t running up and down your face, A.J. Brown is punking your ass on national TV. 

Houston is... not good. The Texans defense is the worst run-stop unit in the NFL, as evidenced by their loss to Tennessee on Sunday. Houston knew the Titans could do nothing but run with Ryan Tannehill out, and Tennessee still rolled them for 314 yards on the ground. 

Oh, yeah! The Eagles defense is also really damn good and Houston’s offense is not. Told you not to overthink this. Just go bet Philadelphia as low as you can before this sucker gets to two touchdowns and beyond.

The Cardinals come back home for this NFC West war after a hard-fought game in Minnesota this Sunday. Arizona lost 34-26 but put a scare in a Vikings team now riding a five-game win streak. 

Outside of two interceptions from Kyler Murray (whose love of video games got roasted by former teammate Patrick Peterson following one INT), the passing game looks alive with DeAndre Hopkins back in the mix and this is a dangerous defense that loves to bring the heat.

The Seahawks, who finally derailed the Giants at home Sunday, opened as 3-point underdogs in the desert and early money is showing on Seattle. That’s trimmed this spread below the key number of a field goal to +2.5 on Sunday night. 

The Cardinals have only one win in their last four outings but if you’re not sold on the Seahawks’ three-game winning streak, wait this line out and see how short it goes before coming back on the Cards.

This non-conference clash could end up being one of the more entertaining games of Week 9, which is why this total is ticking upwards shortly after opening. The Over/Under hit the board at 44.5 points and is as high as 45.5 at many shops Sunday night.

The Dolphins got their offensive groove back against a lousy Lions defense in Week 8, amassing 31 points on 476 yards, including 382 yards passing from Tua Tagovailoa. Miami’s defense, on the other hand, allowed 27 points against on 393 yards from Detroit. The 52.5-point total never stood a chance.

Chicago saw a ton of points in Week 8 as well, giving up 49 to the Cowboys, who totaled 442 yards of offense. The Bears countered with a respectable 371 yards and 29 points — marking the second straight solid outing for Justin Fields & Co. Chicago scored 33 points on 390 yards in last Monday’s upset win at New England, and whaddya know: Da Bears have the No. 8 offense in EPA over the past two weeks.

It's a little too far out to get a true grip on the always-changing weather in Chicago. But if you like good offense and bad defense, bet the Over now and pray for clear skies come Sunday.

The Monday Night Football game for Week 9 has seen its opening total trimmed from as high as 49 points to as low as 47.5 on Sunday night. 

We do have plenty of injuries to offensive skill players on both sides clouding the handicap for this non-conference clash. But with Baltimore enjoying a mini bye (plus a day) after playing last Thursday, there could be a good chance guys like RB Gus Edwards and TE Mark Andrews are ready to roll after suffering what is reported as minor injuries.

New Orleans continues to get healthier by the week after being plagued by ailments in the first half of the season. The Saints offense has been doing all right without those starters, honestly. They’ve cranked out the sixth-highest EPA per play since Week 4 and are doing so at an accelerated pace.

The Ravens run a more methodical approach on offense but gave it the gas against Tampa Bay last Thursday with 74 plays versus a season average of 60.8. The 27 points Baltimore scored in Week 8 was its highest output since Week 3, and Lamar Jackson can now rev his engines on the fast indoor track at the Superdome. Defensively, the Ravens are still a mess, making some very bad offenses look good at times and sitting 28th in EPA allowed per play on the year.

Given that this total is shrinking, I’m holding out for a better number before buying back what could be a nice value Over. However, don’t wait too long. The first injury reports come out Wednesday and I expect positives for skill players on both teams.

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