Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 11: Plenty of Reasons Why to Bet on Whyle

Prop bet #1: Getting down on Brown

Marquise Brown had just a single catch last week with Kyler Murray back under center. However his prices are down because of that, including his anytime TD market that can be had as high as +210 as of Friday. 

Brown still played every snap, had 100% route share, and led the Cardinals in air yards. On the season, he has a 26% target share and a 39% air yard share, which both lead the team. Murray and Brown saw eight games together last season where the receiver put up a 53/565/3 line, so there is a lot of chemistry there, especially on the deep ball.

The Cards will face a Houston defense that gives up points and ranks 25th in EPA/dropback. The Texans could also be without starting safety Jimmie Ward, who exited Week 9 and has been out since. It's a good matchup for a team that could be playing catch-up as a 5-point road dog indoors in a game that projects to be fast-paced.

With the likely game script, the indoor setting, the matchup, and the discounted TD price all favoring Brown, it’s a one-unit bet at +210 for a score with a buy-point of +170/+175. 

Marquise Brown prop: Anytime touchdown (+210 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Someone has to score

The books aren't projecting a ton of points in the Cleveland/Pittsburgh game with a 33.5-point total, but if the Browns do get near the goal line, it will likely be Kareem Hunt getting more short-yard TD chances. At +270 for a TD, I’m riding.

Jerome Ford is the man between the 20s but Hunt is the goal-line back. Hunt had 10 carries to Ford’s 17 last week, and the latter was more explosive with his touches. But the red zone is where Hunt shines as he has scored in five straight games, including two without Deshaun Watson starting. 

Since Week 6, he has 14 of the 20 running back red zone carries, which he has turned into six scores. He also has all six RB carries from inside the 5-yard line over that stretch for five TDs. 

Ford sets ‘em up while Hunt continues to knock ‘em down. The Steelers are a Top-10 defense but are much better vs. the pass. Cleveland ran for 198 yards on 5.5 yards per carry vs. the Steelers back in Week 2 and had two RB TDs from inside the 5-yard line. 

This is also a Pittsburgh defense without its two middle linebackers who are on IR, could be without both starting safeties, and has two members of the D-line questionable heading into Friday’s practice. It's a great matchup in what projects to be a stereotypical AFC North divisional game, which means plenty of running the ball. 

Hunt’s TD is being discounted here thanks to the loss of Watson and a 33.5-point total, but his role is legit and solidified. When the Browns get in the red zone, the probability of running the ball will likely be higher with Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starter. I’d play this to +190 at a full unit.

Kareem Hunt prop: Anytime touchdown (+270 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Whyle for the night

It’s been a while since I’ve bet on a quadruple-digit TD, but Titans tight end Josh Whyle at +1,600 is changing things in Week 11.

The No. 2 TE had two red-zone targets last week where he caught one but failed to score, which is great as it kept Week 11’s price down. The 6-foot-7 rookie played a season-high 27 snaps last week and ran a season-high 12 routes, where he was targeted on five of them. He has three red zone targets over the last two games, and with the Titans playing 12 personnel at nearly 30% last week, the rookie will be on the field on Sunday.

He’ll also play a Jaguars defense that just gave up a 3/116/1 line to George Kittle last week and is slightly wounded in the secondary with Tyson Campbell questionable. 

Usually, there aren’t many things to like about a +1,600 touchdown prop, but this is about as good as you can find. It’s a rookie with a growing role, seeing red zone targets with an offense playing 2-TE sets, and has a great matchup with a solid game script. Fellow rookie Will Levis may have a new outlet in the passing game that has been struggling. 

What makes this even better is that Tennessee might have to pass in the red zone, as the Jags have an elite run defense.

I’d play this to +850 and am betting 0.4 units here to have a big payday. THE BLITZ has this as one of the best +EV touchdown bets of the week. 

Josh Whyle prop: Anytime touchdown (+1,600 at FanDuel)