The Jacksonville Jaguars are early -2.5 favorites over the Houston Texans ahead of their 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at Wembley Stadium in London, England on Sunday, Oct. 18.
My initial Texans vs. Jaguars predictions and NFL picks are calling for Jacksonville covering the spread in a low-scoring AFC South tilt.
Texans vs Jaguars predictions
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Early Texans vs Jaguars spread pick: Jaguars -2.5
With this spread below the key number of 3, my early lean is to back the Jacksonville Jaguars because they’re staying in London after a 19-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5.
It’s a much tougher scheduling spot for the Houston Texans.
In addition to the trip to London, this will also be the Texans' third road game in four weeks. It’s also a major step up in competition for the Houston offense after facing the basement-dwelling Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans stop units over the past two games.
Jacksonville ranks third in defensive DVOA, allows the fifth-lowest EPA per play, and gives up the second-fewest points per drive, after all.
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Early Texans vs Jaguars total pick: Under 43.5
Jacksonville isn’t the only top-tier defense taking the field for this Week 6 tilt.
The Texans rank ninth in defensive DVOA and allow the fifth-lowest opponent offensive success rate. I particularly like Houston's pass rush, which has recorded 10 sacks over the past three games.
These AFC South rivals have also gone Under the total in six of their past eight meetings. Between them, seven of their 10 games to start 2026 have finished Under the closing total.
Finally, both defenses rank above average in limiting opponents' third-down conversion and red-zone touchdown rates.
Texans vs Jaguars odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Texans vs Jaguars spread: Jaguars -2.5
- Texans vs Jaguars moneyline: Texans 43%, Jaguars 57%
- Texans vs Jaguars Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Texans vs Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET
- City: London, England
- Venue: Wembley Stadium
- TV: NFL Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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