The Week 7 edition of Thursday Night Football will be a matchup between division rivals going in wildly different directions, with the 4-1 Steelers visiting the 2-4 Bengals.
The Steelers are favored by 5.5 points while the total is on the low end at 42.5.
My early Steelers vs. Bengals predictions and NFL picks have the visitors winning and covering the spread on Thursday, October 16.
Steelers vs Bengals predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early TNF spread pick: Steelers -5.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers can be tough to trust as a favorite, but this team is giving off different vibes this season, and I like the momentum they bring into the game off a 23-9 win over the Browns.
The change of scenery has been great for Aaron Rodgers, and this could be a great opportunity for this offense to stuff the stat sheet and run up the score on a Cincinnati Bengals' defense that’s undoubtedly one of the worst in the NFL.
The Steelers are keeping Rodgers clean, as they’ve allowed just nine sacks in five games, and this pattern should continue against an extremely flawed Bengals D that ranks near the bottom of the league in both QB pressure percentage and sacks.
Weird things can happen on Thursday nights — see the Giants manhandling the Eagles last week — but Pittsburgh has had Cincinnati’s number, and the Bengals have been a bit of a punching bag within the division.
The Steelers have covered in five of their last six games against the Bengals, who are on a 4-11 ATS slide vs divisional opponents.
It should also be mentioned that without Joe Burrow this season, Cincinnati is 0-4, with their average loss coming by 21.25 points.
Early TNF total pick: Over 42.5 -110
Not much was expected in Joe Flacco’s debut with the Bengals last week, and the final score in their 27-18 loss to the Packers was anything but impressive, but I like what I saw from their offense in the second half against the Packers, who have one of the better defenses in the NFL.
The Bengals scored 18 second-half points in the game and performed better as the game went on. Flacco and Ja’Marr Chase showed solid chemistry, connecting on 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown.
While Flacco is far from a Pro Bowl-level talent at QB, he does bring some stability to the offense, and he has a major upgrade at the skill positions compared to his time in Cleveland.
The other side of the ball remains a massive issue for the Bengals, though. They rank 29th in both yards per play allowed and opponent third down conversion %, and rank 30th in red zone defense. As a result, they’re getting cooked every week and are one of three teams to be allowing an average higher than 30 points per game.
I think the Steelers' offense will really be able to take advantage in what appears to be their easiest matchup of the season. They come into action tied for fifth in red zone offense, and it should be noted that last time they came to Cincinnati in December of last season, Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith put together a game plan that led to 44 points and 410 total yards… and that was with Russell Wilson throwing the football.
The Over is also on an 8-1 run in Cincinnati home games, with their two games this season reaching 58 and 61 total points.
Steelers vs Bengals odds
- Steelers vs. Bengals spread: Bengals +5.5
- Steelers vs. Bengals moneyline: Steelers -260, Bengals +210
- Steelers vs. Bengals Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Steelers vs Bengals
- Steelers vs. Bengals matchup
- Date: Thursday, October 16, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Cincinnati, OH
- Venue: Paycor Center
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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