If you’re chasing plus-money NFL picks for Week 4, welcome to the land of chaos — where hot QBs throw picks, WR2s go off in foreign countries, and JV secondaries get torched like a marshmallow at summer camp.
We’ve got a red-hot Daniel Jones walking into a trap game against Sean McVay’s defense, a sneaky 50+ yards play on Calvin Austin across the pond in Dublin, and a Green Bay passing attack ready to carve up a Dallas secondary held together by duct tape and questionable injury reports.
NFL Week 4 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Daniel Jones |
Over 0.5 interceptions | +122 |
 Calvin Austin |
50+ receiving yards | +188 |
 Jordan Love |
275+ passing yards | +260 |
Daniel Jones o0.5 interceptions
The Daniel Jones hype train has been a fun ride, but Week 4 could be where it hits a bump. It’s a tough road matchup against a well-coached Rams team and an underrated defense.
Jones hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season, but that’s been helped by game script — two of his games were effectively over by half, limiting the need to take risks.
Still, when he has thrown, he’s been aggressive. According to Next Gen Stats, Jones ranks fifth in aggressive throw percentage, which tracks passes into tight coverage with a defender within one yard.
That aggressive style could catch up to him this week as a 3.5-point road underdog, especially if the game script forces more passing. The last time he faced a Sean McVay defense, he threw three interceptions on 51 attempts.
This could be a spot to target a turnover prop or defensive TD angle.
Calvin Austin 50+ receiving yards
Let’s get some action in Dublin with the guy Aaron Rodgers is clearly enjoying as his No. 2 option. Calvin Austin has two touchdowns and 126 yards on 15 targets through three weeks.
He leads the team with a 56% air-yard share and has quietly pulled ahead of DK Metcalf in that category every week. So far, it’s been Austin stretching the field while Metcalf is working underneath.
THE BLITZ is projecting 46.8 receiving yards for Austin, who now gets a favorable matchup against a Minnesota defense that’s had one of the easiest QB schedules so far — facing Jake Browning, Michael Penix, and Caleb Williams.
Austin doesn’t need a ton of volume to hit this number because of how he’s being used, but his target share gives him a path to four or five catches.
Add in a blitz-heavy defense that could lead to some one-on-one deep shots, and there’s real upside. The air-yard profile isn’t priced in here, and that’s where the edge lies.
Jordan Love 275+ passing yards
Racking up passing yards against this Dallas secondary is like stealing Wi-Fi from the neighbors — if you're going to let me, I’m logging on.
We’ve already seen what this defense gives up. Russell Wilson dropped 450 yards on them in Week 2, and that was Dallas’ only home game so far. Caleb Williams threw for 298 yards last week on a line of just 234.5.
Even Jalen Hurts, in a low-volume passing game, went 19-for-23 in the opener.
Jordan Love’s passing total is sitting at 228.5 yards, while THE BLITZ projects him for 263. It wasn’t pretty against the Browns last week, but no one’s moving the ball on them outside of Baltimore in the second half. This week, the Packers get a dome setting, which boosts passing volume and efficiency.
The absence of Jayden Reed could open up extra routes and targets for Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft is another week healthier after dealing with a mid-week injury last week.
On the Dallas side, things aren’t improving. Three defensive backs are already ruled out, and starters Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland are questionable. It’s a great spot to hit the over on Love’s passing line.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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