Plus-money props are where opportunity meets context, and this week offers plenty of both.
A rookie quarterback heading on the road is being undervalued by the market, while two proven veterans are playing with real money on the line as contract incentives come into focus.
Motivation, matchup, and usage all align to create outsized NFL picks at longer odds.
NFL Week 16 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 JJ McCarthy |
Over 1.5 passing TDs | +140 |
 Stefon Diggs |
Over 4.5 receptions | +132 |
 Nick Folk |
Over 2.5 team field goals | +352 |
J.J. McCarthy Over 1.5 passing TDs
Since returning to the lineup, J.J. McCarthy looks rejuvenated, throwing five touchdown passes against vulnerable Washington and Dallas defenses. The Giants profile similarly when it comes to stopping offenses near the goal line, making this another spot where efficiency should show up on the scoreboard.
New York ranks bottom five in red-zone defense and is riding an eight-game losing skid, allowing 31.5 points per game. This is a defense that struggles to stop drives, and the Minnesota Vikings are well-positioned to take advantage. McCarthy has also shown he’s not afraid to push the ball downfield, ranking second in air yards per attempt while benefiting from the second-best protection rate in the league at 88 percent.
Minnesota’s red-zone tendencies further support the Over. The Vikings have been ineffective running the ball near the goal line to the point that C.J. Ham handled the short-yardage touchdown last week. As a result, Minnesota ranks among the most pass-heavy teams in the red zone. All signs point toward McCarthy clearing 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 receptions
Stefon Diggs has incentive money firmly in play with three games remaining. He’s three receptions shy of a $500K bonus, and 13 catches away from another $500K, putting a total of $1 million on the line. Diggs has recorded at least three receptions in all but one game this season, but has been quieter recently in a pair of run-heavy matchups against the Bills and Giants.
That could change this week against Baltimore, a defense allowing the sixth-most receptions to wide receivers. If Diggs wants to make a real push toward that second incentive at 80 catches, the volume needs to start building now. With the Jets up next and a Week 18 matchup against Miami that could turn run-heavy if playoff positioning is settled, this sets up as a spot where Diggs is motivated, and the matchup finally cooperates.
Nick Folk Over 2.5 team field goals
Follow me here, because this angle makes sense. Nick Folk has been one of the most reliable kickers in the league, converting 96.2 percent of his attempts, the best mark in the NFL. This also happens to be his final indoor game of the season before trips to the Meadowlands and Orchard Park in Weeks 17 and 18, where kicking conditions become far less predictable.
Folk sits at 25 made field goals and has significant incentives in play, earning $375K at 27 makes and another $500K if he reaches 30. He kicks for an offense that struggles to finish drives and draws another favorable matchup against the Saints this week. Indoors, the leash is longer, and there’s a real chance the coaching staff is more aggressive with long attempts than they’d consider outdoors. Folk has missed just one kick all season and is 7-for-8 from 50-plus, which could turn a few borderline decisions into field goal tries with real incentive-driven upside.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
