Week 15 brings another slate of plus-money angles, and three stand out above the rest.
A rookie running back is positioned for his heaviest workload yet, a tight end draws the dream matchup against a Bengals defense that bleeds production to the position, and one of the league’s elite playmakers should see max usage with his team’s playoff hopes hanging by a thread.
It’s a perfect mix of volume, matchup, and motivation — all at prices worth attacking in my NFL picks.
NFL Week 15 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Monangai |
15+ carries | +210 |
 Isaiah Likely |
50+ receiving yards | +198 |
 Jahmyr Gibbs |
2+ touchdowns | +320 |
Kyle Monangai 15+ carries
The Cleveland Browns' defense isn’t one to fear right now. Tony Pollard just shredded it for 161 yards and two TDs on 25 carries, Ashton Jeanty posted his best rushing output in a month against them, and even Derrick Henry hit 100 yards — something he’s done only once in his last five games.
Kyle Monangai split snaps evenly with D’Andre Swift last week and still logged 14 carries against a tougher Green Bay defense while trailing most of the game. This week, the Chicago Bears should play from ahead, and Cleveland’s offense could be stuck in frequent three-and-outs on the road.
With a positive game script, both backs could see 30-plus combined carries, but the weather and matchup favor the bigger Monangai, who has a real shot at 80 yards and a touchdown.
Isaiah Likely 50+ receiving yards
Picking on the Cincinnati Bengals with opposing tight ends continues to be a cheat code. They’ve allowed the most touchdowns, most yards, and most receptions to the position — a brutal 1,258 yards given up, with the next-worst team all the way down at 933.
This isn’t just a bad matchup for Cincinnati; it’s a full-on liability.
Isaiah Likely shredded this defense two games ago, leading the Baltimore Ravens with 95 yards on five grabs, then followed it up with four catches and a TD last week. With Joe Burrow back and the pace likely to ramp up, Lamar Jackson should be throwing plenty, and Likely projects for another strong day.
I’m also on his TD at +200 or better.
Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ touchdowns
Dan Campbell is leaning on Jahmyr Gibbs now more than ever. Since taking over play-calling duties, the Detroit Lions running back has had his hands full — both in the rushing game and the passing game, where he has seen 31 targets over his last three games.
The head coach added this week, "We're leaning on Jahmyr harder now — his explosiveness changes games, and with the playoffs looming, we can't afford to underutilize him."
Sure sounds like another heavy dose of the running back indoors with the Lions needing a win against the Los Angeles Rams. David Montgomery is an afterthought right now, and it's Gibbs who has 16 of the 22 RB red-zone opportunities since Campbell took over the play calling.
Forget two TDs, Gibbs has had 3+ TDs in three of his last five games — all with Campbell calling the shots.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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