Plus-money props are loaded with opportunity this week, and a few overlooked angles could offer serious value among your NFL picks.
There’s a wide receiver whose role is quietly expanding and still priced like an afterthought, a quarterback nobody seems to be talking about despite a prime matchup, and a defense set to feast against a rookie making his first NFL start.
If you’re hunting for mispriced edges in the prop market, this is the week to strike.
NFL Week 12 Predictions: Best plus money bets
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Isaiah Hodgins |
50+ receiving yards | +292 |
 Tyler Shough |
2+ passing TDs | +182 |
 Raiders Defense |
anytime TD | +800 |
Isaiah Hodgins 50+ receiving yards
It was Isaiah Hodgins who paced the New York Giants receiver group last week with 57 yards on six targets and 81% of the routes. That came against a tough Green Bay defense with a green quarterback in Jameis Winston.
Darius Slayton missed that game, which is why Hodgins got the run, but Slayton is still nursing a hamstring injury and was limited to individual drills on Thursday. Even if he is a go, he might not be at 100 percent, and there will be plenty of passing game script indoors vs. the Detroit Lions, which will leave some meat on the bone for Hodgins in a worst-case scenario.
The likely probable outcome is that Jameis will start and Slayton will be out again. That could have Hodgins in a WR1 role with great volume potential and an aggressive QB.
THE BLITZ has the projection at 43 yards, giving the 40+ yards at +174, about a 50% projected win rate.
Tyler Shough 2+ passing touchdowns
The bottom-of-the-barrel QB market is always a great place to find a decent plus-money bet in passing TDs. Tyler Shough has a handful of starts to his name, but dropped two TDs on the road before his Week 11 bye vs. a decent Carolina defense.
He gets the Atlanta Falcons at home this week, and there is no reason for him to worry about a defense that has lost its teeth. The Birds are riding a five-game losing streak and have allowed 139 points over that stretch. It was so bad last week vs. the Panthers that Bryce Young, who threw for 226 yards in Weeks 9 and 10 combined, threw for a franchise record 448 yards vs. this defense in Atlanta.
Shough has more weapons than most mid-season-swapped QBs and is coming off the bye week. He should be better than most expect on Sunday.
Las Vegas defense anytime touchdown
How about hate-watching the Cleveland offense on Sunday? Shaduer Sanders is in for a world of hurt. The Cleveland Browns have both of their starting tackles banged up, and Maxx Crosby can't wait to pass rush the Cleveland quarterback, who went 4-for-16 last week with two sacks and an interception.
Both these teams are going to be playing behind the sticks all game, and playing in obvious passing situations is a good way for a green QB to give up the ball and hopefully get taken to the house by the defense.
Sanders might not even finish the game if things get terrible, but Kevin Stefanski could also let the rookie struggle to show the media he is not ready to be an NFL quarterback. If Dillon Gabriel isn't there, Bailey Zappe is likely the next man up.
This game is setting up to be the ugliest offensive football of the season, and both of these defenses are going to eat.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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