If you’re only betting the chalk, you’re leaving value on the table.
Week 1 is the perfect time to take calculated swings on plus-money markets — from alternate Overs to player leader props — before books adjust to new roles, schemes, and breakout candidates.
Whether it's a WR1 mispriced as a WR3 or a tight end in a juicy matchup, these are the kinds of NFL picks that can turn a solid card into a monster Sunday.
Latest NFL Week 1 plus money bets
Pitts 60+ receiving yards (+250)
Olave most receiving yards in the game (+390)
Strange 60+ receiving yards (+550)
Kyle Pitts 60+ receiving yards
I’m buying into the Kyle Pitts hype heading into Week 1.
Back in July, Michael Penix Jr. was already talking about how much he planned to target Pitts, and just this week, OC Zac Robinson praised Pitts’ training camp, saying he’s “locked in on the details” and the staff is “fired up” about where he’s at.
After a 1,000-yard rookie season with Matt Ryan, Pitts has dealt with a carousel of subpar quarterback play. That could change now with Penix under center in Week 1 against a Bucs defense that ranked 25th in EPA per pass last season and is dealing with key injuries — DT Vita Vea (DNP Wednesday) and safety Christian Izien (DNP). Tampa’s strength is on the outside, but they remain vulnerable over the middle.
There’s also a real chance Pitts gets extra slot snaps, and should the injury to WR2 Darnell Mooney, who was limited on Wednesday, also be good news.
Pitts also lit up the Bucs last year — going for 7 catches and 88 yards in one game and 4 catches for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns in the other. Those two games accounted for 31% of his total yardage in 2024 and were his best performances of the season.
His alternate lines are in play this week: 70+ yards at +390 and 80+ yards at +580.
Chris Olave most receiving yards in ARI vs. NO
Let’s stay indoors and chase a bigger payout by backing a great wideout tied to a questionable quarterback. Chris Olave’s receiving line is just 47.5 yards, but THE BLITZ is projecting him for 64 — making it one of the strongest +EV overs on the board.
Instead of targeting his alternate yardage lines, though, there’s value in most receiving yards in the game at +390. THE BLITZ also projects Olave to lead this matchup in receiving, ahead of Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison. While Spencer Rattler isn’t exactly inspiring confidence, that’s baked into the number. The New Orleans Saints are indoors, at home, and could lean on the pass if the run game stalls.
It’s also worth noting: the only full game Rattler and Olave played together last season came in Week 8, where Olave posted 8 catches for 107 yards against the Chargers — on the road.
Arizona’s defense ranked 31st in success rate and 26th in EPA/pass allowed in man coverage last year, which they ran 41% of the time. Olave is +640 to hit 100 yards, but I’d rather take the +390 to lead the game in receiving — essentially beating out Harrison Jr. and McBride in a soft matchup.
Brenton Strange 60+ receiving yards
Let’s add another tight end to the card — this time in a home game, with a tight spread, against PFF’s 30th-ranked secondary in Carolina.
Brenton Strange could realistically be the No. 2 option in this passing attack. Travis Hunter’s role is still uncertain, and Dyami Brown remains inconsistent week to week.
New head coach Liam Coen brings a system that elevated Baker Mayfield and helped Cade Otten carve out a real role in the Bucs' offense. Otten saw a 20% target share last season — top 10 among tight ends — and Strange could benefit from a similar scheme.
With Evan Engram gone, Strange steps into the TE1 role in a Jacksonville Jaguars offense that could surprise people under Coen. He posted three games of 60+ yards last season, and now draws a Panthers defense that gave up the eighth-most passing yards per game in 2024.
This is a strong buy-low spot for Strange in a potentially pass-heavy game script.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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