Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills aim to knock off the AFC’s top seed Saturday afternoon, facing the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round.
The Broncos are -1.5 betting favorites at the best NFL betting sites.
Below, we will look at NFL player props for all of the top offensive players for the Bills and Broncos.
Our computer projects big statistical games from James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Courtland Sutton, and Evan Engram.
Bills vs Broncos computer picks for the Divisonal Round
 Bills |
 Broncos |
|---|---|
| Allen Under 211.5 passing yards -110 | Nix Over 210.5 passing yards -114 |
| Cook Over 73.5 rushing yards -114 | Harvey Under 56.6 rushing yards -110 |
| Shakir Over 49.5 receiving yards -110 | Sutton Over 49.5 receiving yards -111 |
| Kincaid Over 35.5 receiving yards -108 | Engram Over 20.5 receiving yards -110 |
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Bills computer picks
Josh Allen Under 211.5 passing yards (-110)
Projection: 203.0 yards
Sportsbooks are giving Denver’s pass defense a ton of respect, but I’m not convinced it’s entirely warranted.
The Broncos looked like world-beaters against the likes of Trey Lance, Chris Oladokun, and Geno Smith, holding all three under 200 passing yards.
When facing competent quarterbacks, however, yardage told a different story: Trevor Lawrence threw for 279 yards against Denver on Dec. 21, Jordan Love passed for 276 yards on Dec. 14, and even Marcus Mariota managed 294 yards through the air on Nov. 30.
Josh Allen, a level or two above all of those QBs, showed last week that he can still rack up yardage, completing 28-of-35 passes for 273 yards against Jacksonville.
I’ll start by disagreeing with the computer and take the Allen Over.
James Cook Over 73.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 76.1 rushing yards
Cook has had an outstanding season, but this number feels a little too high against an excellent Denver front.
Since Thanksgiving, the Broncos haven’t allowed a single running back to surpass 73.5 rushing yards. I expect Buffalo to focus on beating Denver through the air rather than on the ground, which likely limits Cook’s opportunities.
I’ll disagree with the computer here and take the Under on Cook.
Khalil Shakir Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 54.0 yards
The Bills’ receiving corps has been decimated by injury, with both Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers tearing ACLs against Jacksonville.
As a result, all of Buffalo’s wide receivers should see increased targets. We already saw a sign of this last week: Shakir was targeted a season-high 12 times by Allen against the Jaguars, responding with 82 receiving yards.
I’ll ride with the computer and take the Shakir Over.
Dalton Kincaid Over 35.5 receiving yards (-112)
Projection: 37.1 receiving yards
In last year’s postseason matchup between the Bills and Broncos, Dalton Kincaid had 47 receiving yards.
Allen’s trust in him has only grown this season, with the tight end averaging 43.5 receiving yards per game since the start of November.
I’m on the side of our AI here. Take the Over.
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Broncos computer picks
Bo Nix Over 210.5 passing yards
Projection: 218.0 passing yards
A major reason the Broncos were non-competitive in last year’s 31-7 playoff loss to Buffalo was that Sean Payton didn’t trust Nix. The quarterback threw a season-low 22 passes in that game.
For context, Buffalo allowed Trevor Lawrence to pass for 207 yards last weekend. During the regular season, Denver’s passing output per game (223.9 yards) was nearly identical to Jacksonville’s (222.3).
Because I believe Payton will let Nix chuck it at least 30 times in this one, I like the Over (slightly). The computer and I agree.
RJ Harvey Under 56.6 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 52.0 rushing yards
This number is extremely high for Javonte Harvey, even against Buffalo’s porous run defense. Harvey became Denver’s lead back after Nov. 6, when JK Dobbins went down with an injury.
In the seven games since, he’s gone Over this number just twice.
Meanwhile, coach Sean Payton has been giving more carries to 5-foot-7 back Jaleel McLaughlin. McLaughlin posted a season-high seven carries on Christmas against Kansas City, then added six carries for 41 yards on Jan. 4 against the Chargers.
I’ll take the Harvey Under here, as will my computer pal.
Courtland Sutton Over 49.5 receiving yards (-111)
Projection: 56.0 yards
The Broncos’ best win in the second half of the regular season came in a 34-26 victory over the Packers at Mile High. In that game, Nix targeted Sutton 10 times, and the receiver finished with 113 yards.
Buffalo’s pass defense is impressive, but it’s not immune to big performances. Last week, Parker Washington racked up 107 yards, Tee Higgins had 92, Jaylen Waddle posted 84, and Stefon Diggs went for a whopping 146 yards against the Bills.
I like Nix to target Sutton a ton, and the number is pretty low. The computer and I like the value on the Over.
Evan Engram Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 25.2 receiving yards
The Bills do a tremendous job against opposing tight ends, allowing just 29.6 yards per game to the position during the regular season. In big games, they’ve been even more dominant.
Since the start of December, Buffalo’s two biggest wins came against New England on Dec. 14 and Jacksonville in last week’s playoff matchup.
The Bills held Hunter Henry to just one catch for 18 yards against the Patriots and limited Brenton Strange to a season-low nine receiving yards versus the Jaguars.
I’ll agree with the computer and take the Over.
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