First NFL Head Coach to Be Fired Odds: The Black Hole Strikes Again

We are three weeks into the NFL season, and already we are seeing a trio of coaches break away from the pack in terms of who may be fired first. I break down the odds below.

Last Updated: Sep 25, 2023 12:45 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Josh McDaniels Las Vegas Raiders NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Are you not entertained? 

After three weeks of NFL action, we have seen almost everything you could imagine. We've seen blowouts, we've seen comebacks, we've seen bizarre coaching decisions, and we've seen some incredible individual performances. 

Good teams are starting to form an identity and bad teams (there are a lot) are starting to get their fan base up in arms as they spiral down the Super Bowl odds board. 

As we look at the Week 4 NFL odds boards, the only thing the Las Vegas Raiders, Chicago Bears, and Washington Commanders are favorites for is firing their head coach. 

First NFL head coach fired odds

Coach Odds
Raiders Josh McDaniels  +150
Bears Matt Eberflus  +175
Commanders Ron Rivera  +250
Vikings Kevin O'Connell     +900
Chargers Brandon Staley +1,000
Jets Robert Saleh +1,200
Broncos Sean Payton +2,500
Titans Mike Vrabel +2,800

Odds as of September 25, 2023

Favorites to be the first NFL head coach fired

Josh McDaniels (+150)

I have a joke for you: What do you get when you trade your longtime franchise quarter, a talented tight end, and piss off your workhorse running back? You get the Las Vegas Raiders

Can someone please tell me how they believed that was a recipe for success? Josh Jacobs sat out the majority of the preseason and the Raiders are dead last in rushing yards per game at just 61.7. The passing attack is slightly better at 226 yards per game, but Jimmy Garoppolo is not the answer at quarterback they were hoping for. He's thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) and he may now be dealing with a concussion that could keep him sidelined for a few weeks. Wide receiver Davante Adams is "growing frustrated" with the team and quite frankly, I don't blame him. 

It also doesn't help that Josh McDaniels is kicking field goals down eight with just over two minutes left in the fourth quarter. 

Whatever culture the Raiders thought they were building with McDaniels at the helm, is not going according to plan and McDaniels may not finish the season in Vegas. 

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Matt Eberflus (+175)

If you think things are going poorly in Las Vegas, then you haven't been following along with the mess in Chicago. 

The Bears are a disaster right now. Justin Fields is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league but he's got the audacity to call out the coach for the team's poor play: 

They just lost by 31 points to the Chiefs and they enter Week 4 as +3.5 point home underdogs to the Denver Broncos (a team who just gave up 70 and lost by 50 points!). 

If that doesn't tell you how poor a job Matt Eberflus is doing, than nothing will. 

Unfortunately with Justin Fields under center and you're top receiver being DJ Moore, Eberflus will be the one to take the brunt of the blame. 


Ron Rivera (+250)

How about those Washington Commanders, eh? 

After beating the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos, they took a beating at the hands of the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. 

Sam Howell was awful, throwing four interceptions, the and defense was left looking foolish on every Bills drive. 

When the going gets tough, which it's set to do for the Commanders, Rivera may not be the right coach for the job. 

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