The Washington Commanders may be returning Jayden Daniels from injury this Sunday, but the work he did in two weeks pales in comparison to the start Justin Herbert has had for the Los Angeles Chargers.
I’ll explain why Herbert should go bananas on deep passes against this defense, and quickly highlight what that means for his receiving corps and the game as a whole.
Let’s get into Justin Herbert's odds for the Commanders vs Chargers on Sunday, October 5.
Justin Herbert prop pick
Justin Herbert best bet: Over 262.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
You may be looking at this line and wondering why in the world I’d see any value. After all, Justin Herbert has twice been held Under 250 yards this season and averaged just 227.6 yards per game last year with a better receiving room.
Well, he hasn’t had a chance to play this Commanders defense yet. The Los Angeles Chargers had a tough day at the office against the Giants and Raiders, perhaps playing down to the competition.
Still, the fact of the matter is, Washington has allowed the fifth-lowest checkdown rate in football and the fifth-highest explosive pass play rate according to FTN. That means this should be a field day for Herbert, who ranks seventh in attempts of at least 20 yards.
The low outputs came against two good pass rushes — something that’s always going to be trouble considering how poorly this offensive line has protected the quarterback — but in this case, there’s not really too much to worry about, with the Commanders’ pass rush sitting around the middle of the league now missing Javontae Jean-Baptiste.
Herbert should have time to throw, and that means serious trouble for a Washington defense that has allowed 8.6 yards per attempt — the third-highest in the NFL.
Justin Herbert same-game parlay
Justin Herbert Over 262.5 passing yards
Over 49.5
Quentin Johnston to record 30+ yard reception
To beef this up a bit, I’m going to take an alternate line on the total. The Commanders have moved the ball well on the ground all year, and nothing should change with the return of Daniels firing up this unit against a mediocre run defense.
I’m also going to bank on Quentin Johnston recording a 30+ yard catch for a fifth straight game. We know Washington gives up plenty of deep passes, and the youngster finds himself on the easier side of the field with Marshon Lattimore off to a horrible start and free safety Quan Martin ranking 75th of 78 at his position according to PFF.
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