While Drake Maye has been on a heater over the last two weeks, I'm fading him in my Jets vs. Patriots predictions in what should be a tight, low-scoring AFC East tilt.
The New York Jets are massive 25% underdogs when they visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Week 6, but the vaunted defense should do enough to cover the spread.
Tap into my NFL picks for Week 6 and let's continue our strong season.
Jets vs Patriots predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Jets vs Patriots spread pick: Jets +7.5
The New York Jets' defense is severely underrated this season. The unit gives up just 19.2 points per game, ranking fifth in the NFL, and sixth in defensive EPA/play.
New York's defense is one of the best bend-don't-break sides in the game, too, allowing opponents to score at just a 50% clip — good for sixth-best in football. As you can tell, I have a lot of faith in this unit.
It'll be a pure heat-check game for Drake Maye, who's thrown for seven touchdowns and over 600 yards in his last two weeks after a horrendous start to his season.
I'm expecting a tight divisional tilt here — it's one of my best trades for Week 6.
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Early Jets vs Patriots total pick: Under 43.5
For as good as the Jets' defense has been, the Patriots have been pretty damn solid themselves. New England ranks sixth in total defense, 14th in defensive EPA/play, and faces a subpar Jets offense ranked 26th in total yards.
I'm fine fading Geno Smith and a streaky Drake Maye, who are 7-3 to the Under this year.
No matter how you slice it, this will be a tough defensive battle on a cold Sunday afternoon. The numbers are screaming at the top of the rooftops to take this Under, you should listen.
Jets vs Patriots odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Jets vs Patriots spread: Patriots -7.5
- Jets vs Patriots moneyline: Jets 25%, Patriots 75%
- Jets vs Patriots Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Jets vs Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Foxborough, Mass.
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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