The 7-2 Indianapolis Colts are looking to bounce back from their worst performance of the season when they travel to Berlin, Germany, to take on the reeling 3-5 Atlanta Falcons on Sunday morning.
Indy has the best offense in the NFL, and my top Falcons vs. Colts anytime touchdown picks are bullish on WR Josh Downs.
Here are my favorite NFL picks on Sunday, November 9.
Falcons anytime touchdown pick
Darnell Mooney (+360 at FanDuel)
The Indianapolis Colts traded for shut-down cornerback Sauce Gardner this week, and his first task will be shutting down Drake London, who scored three touchdowns last week. In man coverage this season, Gardner has forced a tight window – less than one yard of separation – on 66.7% of his targets, which is the highest mark among cornerbacks with at least 10 targets in man.
With London being in tight coverage, Atlanta Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. needs to look elsewhere, and that is where Darnell Mooney enters the chat.
Mooney has only 12 catches on 27 targets for 173 yards this season in his six games. However, he had one of the best years of his career in 2025, with 992 yards on 62 catches and five touchdowns. Now healthy, this is the time for him to get back in the mix.
The Colts can be exploited through the air, surrendering 15 passing touchdowns compared to six rushing scores on the year. Of those 15, five have been to tight ends, two have been to leading receivers, one has been to a running back, and seven have been to secondary receivers.
That makes Kyle Pitts and Mooney the two most likely targets to find the end zone for the Falcons, but I like the odds on Mooney a lot better.
Colts anytime touchdown pick
Josh Downs (+310 at FanDuel)
The Atlanta defense has been a little inconsistent this season, but it has been excellent at keeping opposing running backs out of the end zone, allowing only five rushing touchdowns to 13 passing touchdowns.
While Michael Pittman has been Daniel Jones' favorite red-zone target, Josh Downs has been a close second, along with Tyler Warren. However, the Falcons are excellent against tight ends, so I prefer Downs here instead.
Downs has three touchdowns this season and has scored in each of the past three games. He is becoming a much bigger part of the offense and has absolutely no competition for snaps after the trade of Adonai Mitchell.
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