Drake Maye Odds, Picks & Predictions for the AFC Championship Game

Drake Maye’s numbers haven’t been particularly impressive this postseason, and a similar performance is expected against Denver on Sunday afternoon.

Trevor Knapp - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Trevor Knapp • Betting Analyst
Jan 24, 2026 • 17:00 ET • 4 min read
Drake Maye New England Patriots NFL
Photo By - Reuters Connect. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10).

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots are just one win away from reaching Super Bowl LX, but an elite Denver Broncos defense stands in their way on Sunday.

Our NFL player prop projections outline how to bet the latest Drake Maye odds for January 25, with kickoff set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Empower Field. 

Drake Maye predictions for the AFC Championship Game

Market Proj. Odds Value
Passing yards
(226.5)
213.0 Under 226.5
-114
A+
Rushing yards
(30.5)
33.8 Over 30.5
-114
A
Passing completions
(19.5)
18.8 Under 19.5
-118
B+
Passing touchdowns
(1.5)
1.45 Under 1.5
-158
B
Passing attempts
(29.5)
29.63 Over 29.5
-106
C

Although Drake Maye finished the regular season neck and neck with Matthew Stafford in MVP odds, the Patriots quarterback has come back down to earth during his first postseason run.

The 23-year-old averaged only 223.5 passing yards per game on a 58.9% completion rate through the Wild Card and Divisional rounds, and Maye now runs into a Broncos defense that ranked fifth in passer rating allowed during the regular season.

With New England laying 4.5 points against Denver, we expect the Patriots to control the game on the ground and keep Maye in a game-manager role on the road.

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Drake Maye same-game parlay for the AFC Championship Game

Under 226.5 passing yards

Over 30.5 rushing yards

Under 1.5 passing touchdowns

A fully correlated parlay fades Maye through the air but backs him to clear his rushing total, paying out at +323.

A 30% profit boost at FanDuel is also available for a 3+ leg SGP on Sunday's game, elevating the return to +420 if applied.


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Trevor Knapp - Covers
Betting Analyst

Trevor joined the Covers content team as a publishing editor in early 2022. Growing up in Vancouver, he studied Broadcast and Online Journalism at the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT), and interned with TSN and Sportsnet Radio while also writing for the Daily Hive.

An avid bettor of the MLB, NFL, and CFL, Trevor advises his fellow sports bettors to leave their hearts at the door and not hesitate to fade their favorite team. It's a strategy he follows regularly as an apathetic Indianapolis Colts and Toronto Blue Jays fan.

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