The Dallas Cowboys are holding onto playoff hopes by a thread, and they’ll need to get a win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night to keep them alive.
Although Dallas leads the NFL in passing yards per game, the Dak Prescott odds are offering strong value in the quarterback using his legs to hurt the Vikings and their elite pass rush.
Read on for my NFL picks for Sunday Night Football.
Dak Prescott prop pick
Dak Prescott best bet: Over 9.5 rushing yards (-104 at FanDuel)
The Detroit Lions rank eighth in the NFL in sack rate and sport the fifth-highest heavy box rate of any defense. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos sit first in the league in sack rate and sixth in blitz rate.
Dak Prescott was forced to scramble multiple times by both defenses. Each gave him looks where he was either flushed out or found it beneficial to use his legs to make a play.
Although the star quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys has only rushed for 10+ yards in six games this season, he picked up 13 scramble yards against the Lions last week and 31 yards from five scrambles against the Broncos.
The reason this matters? The Minnesota Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate by an extremely wide margin. They send extra defenders on 47% of their defensive snaps. The Falcons, second in blitz rate, sit below 37% on the season.
Additionally, the Vikings load up in the box as part of their blitz scheme. They lead the NFL with a heavy box rate north of 37%. This causes blocking issues, both in terms of mismatches and picking up assignments.
Prescott will be without left tackle Tyler Guyton for the third straight game, and this sets up perfectly for a spot where the Cowboys pivot has to scramble.
Dak Prescott same-game parlay
Dak Prescott Over 9.5 rushing yards
Javonte Williams Over 69.5 rushing yards
George Pickens anytime touchdown
Javonte Williams has finished with 17+ carries in each of the last four games. The Vikings rank 22nd with 126.8 yards allowed per game, and running the ball is a great way for the Cowboys to slow down their pass rush. I expect Williams to get another high-volume day running the ball.
With Jake Ferguson questionable, there could be extra red zone targets to go around. I’d expect George Pickens to get the bulk of them.
The Dallas wideout boasts eight targets inside the 20 over the last four games, one more than Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb, and he’s likely to get some one-on-one situations given how much Minnesota blitzes.
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