It’s the latest installment of the wild NFC East on Sunday, with the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders squaring off after disappointing Week 6 losses.
The star power should be cranked up a notch at AT&T Stadium with CeeDee Lamb set to return from an ankle injury, but my favorite NFL picks target the Cowboys’ other top-tier receiver as well as a big day for Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
With Dak Prescott and Jayden Daniels squaring off in this marquee Sunday, October 19 matchup, buckle up for fireworks.
Commanders vs Cowboys props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
Over 68.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 George Pickens |
Longest Reception Over 25.5 yards | -122 |
| Jaylin Lane |
Anytime touchdown | +200 |
Prop bet #1: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 68.5 rushing yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt already has a 100-yard rushing day under his belt in his rookie season, but he has to be eyeing an even bigger breakout performance on Sunday against a Dallas Cowboys defense that coughed up 216 yards on the ground last weekend against Rico Dowdle and the Carolina Panthers.
Croskey-Merritt’s touches are trending in the right direction, too. He turned 14 carries into 111 yards and two TDs in a Week 5 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, followed by a season-high 17 totes on Monday night. Despite fumbling in back-to-back outings, he’s still the main man in this Washington Commanders backfield.
So this line feels a little too low for ‘Bill’ in this spot, with the threat of Daniels’ legs preventing the Cowboys from selling out at the line of scrimmage. Only three teams are allowing more rushing yards per game than Dallas (142.2) this season and, with Terry McLaurin ruled out again and other pass-catchers listed as questionable, it makes sense for the Commanders to lean on the run game.
The anytime Croskey-Merritt TD prop is also worth considering for such a favorable matchup, but the Over on a generous rushing yards line offers even more value.
Prop bet #2: George Pickens longest reception Over 25.5 yards
Though CeeDee Lamb is set to re-establish himself as Dak Prescott’s No. 1 target, there were some very encouraging signs from George Pickens during his brief stint as the go-to guy in this Dallas passing attack.
Pickens was a beast last weekend against the Panthers, hauling in nine catches for 168 receiving yards, including a catch of 40+ yards for the second straight contest. So I’m going back to the well with this prop, and Pickens has had a catch of at least 27 yards in four of his past five outings.
Plus, the Commanders are struggling in the secondary. This year, they’ve given up the second-most passing plays of 40+ yards (6), trailing only the Cowboys, and that flaw was glaring again on Monday night, as four different Chicago Bears receivers had a catch of more than 20 yards.
Lamb’s return should mean even more one-on-one coverage for Pickens to exploit, and there’s a nice connection brewing with Dak on those shots down the field. Pencil Pickens in for another explosive play on Sunday.
Prop bet #3: Jaylin Lane anytime TD
While Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz have been key as savvy veterans in a makeshift passing attack, the Commanders are also leaning heavily on some inexperienced receivers – and rookie Jaylin Lane has caught the eye when he’s been given opportunities.
He had a flashy 37-yard reception on MNF against Chicago, and it would be no surprise to see him get an uptick in snaps here as a banged-up Washington receiver room tries to go after a vulnerable Dallas defense.
Though his volume has been limited, Lane’s speed brings a different dimension for the Commanders. If the visitors can lull the Cowboys to sleep with a steady diet of running plays, Lane is an ideal play-action threat when Daniels wants to be aggressive.
For all the attention on Dallas’ leaky run defense this week, the hosts also gave up three passing touchdowns in Carolina, and it only takes one blown assignment to cash this pick. Lane isn’t an obvious red zone weapon at 5”10, but he scored 10 touchdowns in his two college seasons at Virginia Tech, and I like this price for a score on Sunday.
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