The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cleveland Browns in an AFC North showdown at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, October 12.
My early Browns vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks are calling for Pittsburgh to take care of business at home and make life miserable for Cleveland rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Browns vs Steelers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Browns vs Steelers spread pick: Steelers -5.5
The Cleveland Browns lost late to the Vikings in Week 5 in London and now have the luxury of visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6.
It’s a brutal schedule spot for Cleveland, with the Browns playing a third consecutive road game, while the Steelers are coming off their bye.
In addition to the schedule advantage for Pittsburgh, Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been solid, and I’m not anticipating Browns rookie Dillon Gabriel matching his play.
Gabriel tossed for just 190 yards at 5.8 yards per attempt with a 57.6 completion percentage against the Vikings, and he’ll have just as tough a time at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday.
This Steelers defense has also allowed the lowest EPA per rush the past three weeks, so the Cleveland offense is all the more in trouble.
Returning to Rodgers, he’s aired it out for a respectable 7.3 yards per attempt with a 68.5 completion percentage, and I’m expecting him to play game manager well enough to cover the number.
Plus, Pittsburgh has won four straight home games against Cleveland and covered the spread in each.
Early Browns vs Steelers total pick: Under 38.5
The Cleveland defense ranks second in DVOA and first in PFF grade, and I’m anticipating this game playing out in true AFC North fashion.
As discussed, Pittsburgh is going to give Gabriel trouble, and I expect both teams to lean on the running game early and often as a means to mitigate the opposing pass rush.
Cleveland paces the NFL in PFF pass rush grade while ranking fifth in pass rush win rate, while Pittsburgh checks in 10th and third. The Steelers also generate pressure at the second-highest rate in the league.
Of course, the Browns are tied for the lowest points per game in the league, too.
Browns vs Steelers odds
- Browns vs. Steelers spread: Steelers -5.5
- Browns vs. Steelers moneyline: Browns +200, Steelers -245
- Browns vs. Steelers Over/Under: 38.5
How to watch Browns vs Steelers
- Browns vs. Steelers matchup
- Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Pittsburgh, PA
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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