The Buffalo Bills are -4.5 road favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders ahead of their 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 18.
Buffalo is 4-1 against the spread and facing a reeling Las Vegas defense, so my early Bills vs. Raiders predictions and NFL picks expect Josh Allen to lead the way to Buffalo covering the number in Week 6.
Bills vs Raiders predictions
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Early Bills vs Raiders spread pick: Bills -4.5
There has been a sizable move from the Buffalo Bills trading as a -6 favorite down to the -4.5 line available now.
It’s an overreaction.
The Las Vegas Raiders have surrendered the highest offensive success rate and third-highest EPA per play while allowing 34 points per game over the past three weeks.
The Vegas defense reeling leading into this matchup puts the Raiders in a tough spot.
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has the offense ranked second in DVOA, first in EPA per play and averaging a league-high 32.8 points per game, after all.
The Bills will also remain on the West Coast to avoid a cross-country turnaround after topping the Los Angeles Rams 37-34 in overtime on Monday Night Football, so my early lean is to lay the wood with Allen & Co. against a soft Vegas defense.
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Early Bills vs Raiders total pick: Over 53.5
The Over has hit in seven consecutive meetings between these two teams, and the Bills have also played to the Over in four of their five 2026 games.
Buffalo has had its own defensive hiccups to rank 27th in DVOA while allowing the third-highest EPA per play and 28.2 points per game, too, so I’m not anticipating stop after stop from the Bills.
The Raiders have also been able to move the ball and score with a 16th-ranked offensive DVOA and average of 26.4 points per game.
As a result, expect a high-scoring, back-and-forth bout at Allegiant Stadium between the Bills and Raiders on Sunday afternoon.
Bills vs Raiders odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Bills vs Raiders spread: Bills -4.5
- Bills vs Raiders moneyline: Bills 69%, Raiders 31%
- Bills vs Raiders Over/Under: 53.5
How to watch Bills vs Raiders
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Las Vegas, Nev.
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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