The 2025 NFL regular season is finally here! With a full slate of 16 games with mostly healthy rosters, there are tons of player props options with some value.
Here are my top five NFL picks for Week 1 of the regular season.
NFL Week 1 prop picks
Johnston Under 2.5 receptions (-154)
Thielen Under 3.5 receptions (-174)
Wilson Under 2.5 receptions (-148)
Chubb Under 11.5 rush attempts (-108)
Wilson Under 8.5 rushing yards (-122)
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 1
Quentin Johnston Under 2.5 receptions
After a disappointing rookie season, Quentin Johnston had an improved sophomore season after the exit of Keenan Allen.
However, Allen has now returned to the Los Angeles Chargers and Ladd McConkey is expected to be the heavy target machine from the slot. They also drafted Tre Harris and Keandre Lambert-Smith that could see some time on Friday night.
Despite seeing way more targets last season, he still had six games in the regular season with less than three catches. Johnston had five targets in their playoff game with no catches. In his rookie season, QJ had 12 games with less than three catches.
Last year against the Chiefs, Johnston had only one catch in the game where McConkey played. He had five catches in the game where he didn’t. With McConkey and Allen back and on the field, I see a huge targets drop for QJ.
Adam Thielen Under 3.5 receptions
Adam Thielen has returned to the Minnesota Vikings after two years away with the Carolina Panthers. While it is a nice story that he is back with the Vikings, he is 35 years old and is coming off a season where he only had 48 catches for 615 yards on a team with very little wise receiver depth.
Now he is back playing behind Justin Jefferson with a first-time starting quarterback. J.J. McCarthy is likely to rely on his superstar, as well as tight end T.J. Hockenson. Obviously, without Jordan Addison, Thielen will see some targets, but this number is insanely high.
Thielen went the first four games of last season without four catches in a game despite being the leading target man. The Bears pass defense was solid last season and will likely force a more run heavy offense for the Vikings.
Michael Wilson Under 2.5 receptions
The game that I think has the most blowout potential is the Arizona Cardinals destroying the New Orleans Saints. The Saints may be the worst team in the NFL and the Cardinals are a serious threat to make the playoffs this season.
Michael Wilson has been very much a secondary option in his two years with the Cardinals. He has gone Under 2.5 receptions in 14 of his 29 games in his career. In the five games that the Cardinals have won by double digits with Wilson playing, he has only gotten at least three catches in one of those.
If this game is a blowout, it is extremely unlikely Wilson sees targets at all in the second half and most of the early targets will go to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Then the Cardinals will be very run heavy throughout.
Nick Chubb Under 11.5 rush attempts
Nick Chubb has played a total of 10 games over the last two seasons due to injuries. He is also getting up there in age for a running back, as he will turn 30 this season. Joe Mixon is out to start the season, so Chubb will be the Week 1 starter.
However, just because Chubb is the best running back on the active roster on Sunday does not mean he will be playing a ton. In those 10 games he played the last two seasons, he had 11 or less carries in six of those. Seven of those 10 were losses and they are underdogs in this game. Chubb had all six of those Unders in those seven losses.
The combination of Chubb returning from injury and being older with the Houston Texans being underdogs, makes me believe he will only see single digit carries in this game. I expect the likes of Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, and rookie Woody Marks to see a lot of time in passing situations.
Russell Wilson Under 8.5 rushing yards
Russell Wilson will be starting his 14th NFL season with a new team in New York. After being a run heavy quarterback for most of his career, the 10-time Pro Bowler is now 37 years old and is not as mobile as he once was.
Last year with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Wilson started five of his first six games with single digit rushing yards. Even throughout his career, he rarely took off running in his first games of the season.
2020 was the last time he had double digit rushing yards in a season opener. He also had single digit rushing yards in the 2018 and 2019 season openers.
Last year, Wilson played the Commanders and only had four rush attempts for three yards. I think the combination of him wanting to be pass heavy early in the season with his age makes this a great play.
NFL Week 1 prop betting card
- Johnston Under 2.5 receptions (-154)
- Thielen Under 3.5 receptions (-174)
- Michael Wilson Under 2.5 receptions (-148)
- Chubb Under 11.5 rush attempts (-108)
- Russell Wilson Under 8.5 rushing yards (-122)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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