Bears vs Texans SNF Prop Bets: Collins Makes Most of Limited Stroud Passes

Prop bet #1: Caleb Williams Under 215.5 passing yards

-110 at bet365

There's no way that Caleb Williams can be as bad as he was last week, when he completed just 14-of-29 passes for 93 yards. That said, I don't see him showing enough improvement to eclipse his passing yards total here.

It's clear that we need to temper our early expectations for the Chicago Bears' first overall pick, and it doesn't help that receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are questionable with injuries. Allen is dealing with a heel issue that's been bothering him since the preseason, while Odunze is trying to play through a sprained MCL, so even if they do suit up, they won't be at 100%. 

The Houston Texans secondary gave up a couple of big plays against the Colts last week but the down-to-down efficiency was solid. Williams had plenty of pass attempts against the Titans, but the overwhelming majority of them were short or behind the line of scrimmage. He went just 0-for-3 on deep pass attempts and attempted only three intermediate throws.  

This is a Texans stop-unit that showed improvement under Demeco Ryans last year and signed Pro Bowl defensive end Danielle Hunter in the offseason. Hunter and 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. were quiet in Week 1, but should perform better against a Bears O-line that struggled up front. With both of them providing pressure off the edge and forcing Williams into quick throws, take the Under on his passing yards prop.

Prop bet #2: C.J. Stroud Under 34.5 pass attempts

-115 at bet365

The O/U for C.J. Stroud's pass attempts this week is set at 34.5, a number he went below last week despite a back-and-forth battle and a whopping 76 total plays from Houston. Keep in mind, the Texans played at a much slower pace last season, averaging just 61.8 plays per game, while the Browns had a league-high 69.8 plays per game, so that number is nowhere near sustainable. 

Chicago's pass defense has impressed since the midway point of last season and held Will Levis to just 4.0 yards per pass attempt last week. However, the Bears run defense has been significantly weaker and surrendered 140 rushing yards to the Titans.

The Texans piled up 213 yards on 40 carries in Week 1 with new running back Joe Mixon providing the offensive balance they needed last year. Houston ran the ball on 52.6% of its plays in that contest and that gameplan should continue with Chicago vulnerable against the run. 

With Houston installed as a 6.5-point home favorite for this clash, there's also a good chance we see a positive game script for the Texans, which would make it even more likely that they'd lean on their backs and limit Stroud's attempts. 

Prop bet #3: Nico Collins Over 65.5 receiving yards

-110 at bet365

While I don't expect a ton of pass attempts from Stroud, I do think a significant portion of his throws will target Nico Collins. 

Collins emerged as one of the best receivers in the NFL last year, racking up 1,297 receiving yards in 15 games. That impressive play has continued into this year, with the Texans wideout hauling in six of eight targets for 117 yards last week. 

Stroud and Collins have shown the ability to pick apart defenses that use a lot of zone and Cover-3 looks, and the Bears play zone at a Top-5 rate. That should allow the Texans to scheme Collins away from shutdown corner Jaylon Johnson and get him good looks in the passing game.