The college football regular season is winding down, but there’s still plenty of opportunity to cash in on upset victories.
My underdog plays and college football picks for Week 12 focus on three programs that should find quite a bit of success on the ground.
CFB Week 12 upset picks
Arkansas moneyline
Iowa moneyline
Coastal Carolina moneylineArkansas moneyline
On this week’s SEC teleconference, Bobby Petrino mentioned how the LSU Tigers took away the ability for the Arkansas Razorbacks to run the football last season. That shouldn’t be an issue this time around.
As good as LSU’s defense is, opponents are posting a 42.6% success rate, which sits 63rd in the country.
That’s an area where the Hogs thrive, posting the 14th-highest success rate nationally when taking to the ground. It’s why they’re ranked ninth in quality drive rate and 33rd in points per quality drive.
And yes, Arkansas has problems on defense. But LSU’s offense has been putrid at times this season. The Tigers have stated they’re going to give snaps to both Garrett Nussmeier and Michael Van Buren. And if neither of them show consistent success, it could put the Tigers into a difficult situation.
Arkansas is coming off a bye week, and gets an early kickoff in Death Valley against an LSU team and fanbase that is still licking their wounds after the loss to Alabama. The Razorbacks should’ve beaten Mississippi State last time out, but were undone by a school-record 193 penalty yards.
Petrino will have things cleaned up for a big rivalry game. Taylen Green and Mike Washington Jr. will have big games on the ground, and Green will extend drives against an LSU defense ranked 120th in scramble rate and 101st in scramble EPA.
Iowa moneyline
Andrew Caley has been screaming to everyone who will listen that the USC Trojans can’t stop the run. And for good reason — because they can’t.
The Trojans rank 76th defensively in EPA/rush, with opponents posting a 46.8% success rate that ranks 122nd in college football. Those struggles stem from a front seven that ranks in the Bottom 10 nationally in yards allowed before contact.
Enter an Iowa Hawkeyes team that boasts one of the strongest run rate above expected metrics in college football. It’s boosted by Mark Gronowski, a mobile quarterback who is deadly with his legs. That’s an area where USC has really struggled, ranking 103rd in EPA on designed QB runs.
USC’s offense is among the best in college football, and Iowa’s defense will be put to the test. But the best way to stop a high-powered offense is to leave it sitting on the sidelines for long stretches.
One area where USC has struggled at times is turnovers, and the Hawkeyes rank eighth nationally in defensive interception rate. They also rank seventh in yards allowed per pass and 20th in completion rate, helping them to the seventh-best EPA/dropback mark in the country.
This spread is far too large, which means we’re getting tremendous value on the money line for Iowa. The Hawkeyes should control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and give themselves a chance to win late.
One last note: for those of you who like trends, the Hawkeyes haven’t lost consecutive regular-season games since October of 2022 (9-0 SU).
Coastal Carolina moneyline
The Georgia Southern Eagles allowed 331 rushing yards to James Madison, 184 rushing yards to Southern Miss, and 266 rushing yards to Arkansas State in their last three defeats. And it’s a preview of what the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers will attempt to do this weekend.
The Chanticleers are winners of four straight games, and they’ve rushed for almost 1,100 yards in that span. They’ve averaged 5.82 yards a carry, and have rushed the ball at least 41 times in all four contests. They rank 16th in yards gained before contact on the year.
Georgia Southern’s defense ranks 103rd in yards allowed per carry, 135th in success rate against the run, and 120th in EPA/rush. They also rank 124th in quality drive rate and 106th in points allowed on those drives. It’s a key reason why they have the third-worst late-down success rate of any team.
The Eagles have a balanced, albeit average, offense this season but they don’t thrive at anything in particular. And that will be problematic if they can’t consistently put up points. The Chanticleers have a Top 20 red-zone offense, and the Eagles rank 124th at allowing points inside the 20.
Coastal Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six, winning four of those games outright as an underdog. The Chanticleers still control their own destiny in terms of reaching the Sun Belt Championship game, and they won’t let it slip away here.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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